Seasonal Streamflow Forecasts

Exceedance probability for Total inflow to Lake Eildon


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Product list for Total inflow to Lake Eildon



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Exceedance probability for Total inflow to Lake Eildon ( Jul 2014 )

Exceedance Probability Summary
Exceedance Prob. of
Streamflow (%)
Streamflow Forecast
(3 month total flow in GL)
Historical Reference
(3 month total flow in GL)
101360.6181328.976
201174.4531129.635
301054.079998.976
40951.709876.976
50856.093771.201
60773.719659.097
70684.992556.184
80582.992444.478
90452.935308.614

Exceedance Probability
Exceedance Prob. of
Streamflow (%)
Streamflow Forecast
(3 month total flow in GL)
Historical Reference
(3 month total flow in GL)
11900.8691832.469
21733.2101672.311
31651.6671609.391
41574.2651557.565
51527.5371519.093
61475.2641465.399
71436.9511427.470
81411.3251391.835
91384.2991356.048
101360.6181328.976
111336.5511306.365
121315.3761281.224
131293.8931262.010
141275.8661242.617
151257.2151221.127
161240.1311203.928
171220.4661183.675
181203.7931162.847
191189.0411144.340
201174.4531129.635
211162.3961115.319
221150.0091099.252
231138.6191087.932
241124.8541071.300
251112.6371060.793
261100.8881051.694
271089.2201037.739
281077.6401026.573
291065.0501013.495
301054.079998.976
311044.481985.572
321035.881971.834
331026.770960.896
341016.254950.034
351006.040934.990
36993.528922.848
37983.515910.622
38971.697899.120
39961.923889.598
40951.709876.976
41939.132864.654
42930.151855.448
43920.235847.640
44911.830836.837
45902.876827.039
46895.286815.980
47886.127805.861
48874.053792.521
49864.823782.323
50856.093771.201
51847.038761.012
52838.598750.725
53828.608738.574
54821.861726.831
55812.938714.791
56806.579700.022
57798.736691.202
58790.147682.220
59781.817672.279
60773.719659.097
61762.832645.787
62753.819635.971
63745.696626.726
64736.069615.269
65730.431606.270
66721.497596.997
67712.692588.266
68703.576576.778
69694.697564.849
70684.992556.184
71678.096544.224
72667.552534.550
73658.789523.092
74647.865512.753
75637.174501.178
76628.455490.739
77617.211479.250
78605.037468.537
79595.653458.184
80582.992444.478
81571.389431.450
82562.101418.927
83548.729404.556
84536.985392.395
85524.647381.762
86509.885367.313
87495.053352.259
88481.770340.028
89465.096325.224
90452.935308.614
91437.261292.975
92422.222274.363
93403.578254.371
94383.067229.855
95350.377212.202
96326.122191.834
97285.329162.124
98253.415136.650
99200.572107.265


About the exceedance probability product


  1. The forecast is a simulation from the Bayesian Joint Probability (BJP) Model. The simulation comprises 5000 members.
  2. The forecast skill of the BJP model is different for different forecast periods of the year. Please look at the Model Validation results to assess model skill for this forecast period.
  3. The historical reference is a probabilistic representation of the historical data.
  4. The forecast location name is displayed in the graph title. Site forecast locations are followed by the Australian Water Resources Council (AWRC) river station number in brackets e.g. (405219).
  5. The streamflow data used for new forecasts and for verification is from realtime data sources which are not rigorously quality controlled.
  6. The historical reference plot and the historical data plots are derived from the available historical record. The legend shows the year associated with the start month of the forecast period.
  7. The RMSEP skill scores have been defined as less than 10 very low skill, 10-20 low skill, 20-40 moderate skill, greater than 40 high skill.
  8. Further explanation of some technical terms is provided under the FAQ.


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