Seasonal Streamflow Forecasts

Probability distribution for Total inflow to Lake Eildon


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Product list for Total inflow to Lake Eildon


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Probability distribution for Total inflow to Lake Eildon(  )

Basic Statistics
Streamflow Forecast
(3 month total flow in GL)
Historical Reference
(3 month total flow in GL)
25% Quartile146.438201.126
Median222.381335.818
Mean248.971371.558
75% Quartile326.677505.389
Interquartile Range180.240304.262

Exceedance Probability
Exceedance Prob. of
Streamflow (%)
Streamflow Forecast
(3 month total flow in GL)
Historical Reference
(3 month total flow in GL)
1673.0581006.506
2604.820900.509
3572.202858.986
4546.965824.854
5516.830799.568
6495.040764.364
7477.247739.566
8462.745716.331
9446.014693.068
10437.484675.522
11426.962660.906
12416.582644.699
13407.369632.347
14398.609619.913
15390.201606.175
16384.256595.213
17375.395582.346
18368.580569.161
19363.460557.490
20356.186548.248
21349.839539.278
22343.382529.247
23338.233522.201
24333.024511.885
25326.739505.392
26321.764499.783
27316.848491.209
28310.289484.373
29306.045476.396
30302.090467.579
31296.522459.475
32292.603451.208
33288.054444.655
34282.671438.173
35278.699429.240
36274.618422.068
37270.231414.883
38266.639408.158
39262.205402.615
40257.244395.304
41254.521388.208
42251.013382.934
43246.020378.478
44242.873372.343
45239.246366.808
46235.739360.595
47231.895354.941
48228.832347.537
49225.823341.914
50222.381335.818
51219.384330.269
52215.519324.702
53212.830318.171
54209.047311.906
55206.052305.532
56202.684297.782
57199.685293.190
58196.040288.543
59193.201283.432
60190.103276.710
61186.686269.987
62183.807265.070
63180.348260.471
64177.995254.816
65175.381250.408
66172.636245.896
67169.640241.678
68167.361236.169
69164.796230.501
70161.411226.416
71159.057220.823
72155.898216.337
73152.895211.067
74149.428206.352
75146.411201.118
76142.807196.437
77140.013191.329
78135.934186.605
79133.162182.076
80129.896176.134
81126.711170.540
82122.153165.212
83119.194159.154
84115.979154.072
85112.841149.662
86108.935143.715
87105.170137.572
88101.800132.617
8997.734126.662
9094.394120.026
9191.073113.817
9287.529106.468
9382.48698.608
9477.15188.993
9570.67482.065
9663.05774.045
9756.22262.234
9849.31451.924
9936.61039.688


About the probability distribution product


  1. The forecast is a simulation from the Bayesian Joint Probability (BJP) Model. The simulation comprises 5000 members.
  2. The forecast skill of the BJP model is different for different forecast periods of the year. Please look at the Model Validation results to assess model skill for this forecast period.
  3. The historical reference is a probabilistic representation of the historical data.
  4. The forecast location name is displayed in the graph title. Site forecast locations are followed by the Australian Water Resources Council (AWRC) river station number in brackets e.g. (405219).
  5. The streamflow data used for new forecasts and for verification is from realtime data sources which are not rigorously quality controlled.
  6. The historical reference plot and the historical data plots are derived from the available historical record. The legend shows the year associated with the start month of the forecast period.
  7. The RMSEP skill scores have been defined as less than 10 very low skill, 10-20 low skill, 20-40 moderate skill, greater than 40 high skill.
  8. The 25% quartile, also defined as the first quartile cuts off the lowest 25% of data. The 75% quartile, also defined as the third quartile cuts off the lowest 75%. The interquartile range, also called the middle fifty, is a measure of statistical dispersion, being equal to the difference between the third and first quartiles.
  9. Further explanation of some technical terms is provided under the FAQ.


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