Seasonal Streamflow Forecasts

Probability distribution for Total inflow to Lake Eildon


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Product list for Total inflow to Lake Eildon


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Probability distribution for Total inflow to Lake Eildon(  )

Basic Statistics
Streamflow Forecast
(3 month total flow in GL)
Historical Reference
(3 month total flow in GL)
25% Quartile46.33961.309
Median65.54396.605
Mean73.639118.788
75% Quartile92.983150.058
Interquartile Range46.64388.749

Exceedance Probability
Exceedance Prob. of
Streamflow (%)
Streamflow Forecast
(3 month total flow in GL)
Historical Reference
(3 month total flow in GL)
1213.498455.815
2177.992363.215
3163.705332.100
4154.444308.432
5146.933291.928
6141.183270.316
7135.617255.988
8131.202243.194
9127.289230.964
10123.972222.105
11121.227214.956
12118.015207.263
13115.565201.561
14113.288195.957
15111.006189.918
16108.648185.212
17106.532179.811
18104.609174.411
19102.570169.740
20100.701166.111
2199.330162.648
2297.878158.841
2396.011156.209
2494.712152.413
2593.001150.059
2691.860148.047
2790.697145.010
2889.381142.621
2987.975139.867
3086.499136.867
3185.275134.148
3284.093131.412
3382.752129.269
3481.567127.172
3580.385124.317
3679.419122.054
3778.364119.811
3877.025117.734
3976.198116.038
4075.303113.823
4174.245111.694
4273.067110.127
4371.807108.811
4470.864107.013
4569.947105.404
4668.928103.612
4767.984101.994
4867.17699.892
4966.23598.309
5065.54396.605
5164.71295.066
5263.70393.530
5362.91391.742
5462.28490.038
5561.57388.316
5660.74486.238
5759.85185.014
5858.87483.780
5958.04082.430
6057.36080.663
6156.60178.905
6255.83777.626
6355.12076.433
6454.49374.972
6553.56273.837
6652.68772.678
6752.02371.598
6851.32170.190
6950.75868.746
7049.91367.708
7149.04266.289
7248.29265.152
7347.58263.819
7447.01162.628
7546.33761.307
7645.69060.126
7744.78658.838
7843.87557.647
7942.98656.505
8042.17055.005
8141.12253.592
8240.15052.244
8339.22250.708
8438.27549.416
8537.47248.292
8636.40646.772
8735.38845.194
8834.21843.916
8933.08542.372
9032.03140.640
9130.71039.007
9229.45037.055
9328.23434.944
9426.90532.319
9525.17030.396
9623.29428.129
9721.31124.699
9818.78421.594
9914.64717.739


About the probability distribution product


  1. The forecast is a simulation from the Bayesian Joint Probability (BJP) Model. The simulation comprises 5000 members.
  2. The forecast skill of the BJP model is different for different forecast periods of the year. Please look at the Model Validation results to assess model skill for this forecast period.
  3. The historical reference is a probabilistic representation of the historical data.
  4. The forecast location name is displayed in the graph title. Site forecast locations are followed by the Australian Water Resources Council (AWRC) river station number in brackets e.g. (405219).
  5. The streamflow data used for new forecasts and for verification is from realtime data sources which are not rigorously quality controlled.
  6. The historical reference plot and the historical data plots are derived from the available historical record. The legend shows the year associated with the start month of the forecast period.
  7. The RMSEP skill scores have been defined as less than 10 very low skill, 10-20 low skill, 20-40 moderate skill, greater than 40 high skill.
  8. The 25% quartile, also defined as the first quartile cuts off the lowest 25% of data. The 75% quartile, also defined as the third quartile cuts off the lowest 75%. The interquartile range, also called the middle fifty, is a measure of statistical dispersion, being equal to the difference between the third and first quartiles.
  9. Further explanation of some technical terms is provided under the FAQ.


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