Seasonal Streamflow Forecasts

Probability distribution for Total inflow to Lake Eildon


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Product list for Total inflow to Lake Eildon


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Probability distribution for Total inflow to Lake Eildon(  )

Basic Statistics
Streamflow Forecast
(3 month total flow in GL)
Historical Reference
(3 month total flow in GL)
25% Quartile32.81731.183
Median47.76949.634
Mean53.58261.749
75% Quartile67.53977.948
Interquartile Range34.72246.765

Exceedance Probability
Exceedance Prob. of
Streamflow (%)
Streamflow Forecast
(3 month total flow in GL)
Historical Reference
(3 month total flow in GL)
1156.092244.301
2136.238193.370
3123.104176.345
4114.551163.428
5108.847154.439
6104.382142.692
7100.874134.921
897.221127.993
993.851121.381
1091.251116.599
1188.683112.743
1285.884108.600
1383.981105.531
1481.990102.518
1579.82899.274
1678.40496.749
1777.34393.853
1876.20090.959
1974.72888.459
2073.45986.518
2172.19184.667
2271.04182.634
2370.01181.229
2468.62279.204
2567.55177.949
2666.74376.877
2765.79175.259
2864.84273.987
2963.77572.522
3062.96270.927
3162.01569.482
3261.05368.030
3360.22166.892
3459.44665.780
3558.55564.266
3657.70863.067
3756.92961.880
3855.97260.780
3955.12959.883
4054.39658.712
4153.63257.587
4252.89356.759
4352.18156.065
4451.54955.116
4551.01154.267
4650.27553.322
4749.54852.470
4849.01851.363
4948.45750.530
5047.76949.634
5147.26948.824
5246.68348.017
5346.01747.077
5445.36446.183
5544.76845.279
5644.21144.189
5743.61443.548
5843.12142.902
5942.47642.195
6041.94041.270
6141.39140.351
6240.88639.682
6340.31239.059
6439.84238.296
6539.31137.703
6638.74737.099
6738.03936.535
6837.24335.802
6936.57335.050
7035.91034.509
7135.31933.771
7234.74533.180
7334.15732.487
7433.56931.868
7532.81131.182
7632.12830.569
7731.55729.901
7830.97229.284
7930.44028.692
8029.84827.916
8129.16927.185
8228.46526.488
8327.73825.694
8427.10725.028
8526.54224.448
8625.87423.664
8725.03022.852
8824.20822.195
8923.12521.401
9022.36920.512
9121.48419.674
9220.44618.674
9319.40217.594
9418.18816.254
9517.05115.273
9615.93414.120
9714.45112.379
9812.45010.808
999.5908.864


About the probability distribution product


  1. The forecast is a simulation from the Bayesian Joint Probability (BJP) Model. The simulation comprises 5000 members.
  2. The forecast skill of the BJP model is different for different forecast periods of the year. Please look at the Model Validation results to assess model skill for this forecast period.
  3. The historical reference is a probabilistic representation of the historical data.
  4. The forecast location name is displayed in the graph title. Site forecast locations are followed by the Australian Water Resources Council (AWRC) river station number in brackets e.g. (405219).
  5. The streamflow data used for new forecasts and for verification is from realtime data sources which are not rigorously quality controlled.
  6. The historical reference plot and the historical data plots are derived from the available historical record. The legend shows the year associated with the start month of the forecast period.
  7. The RMSEP skill scores have been defined as less than 10 very low skill, 10-20 low skill, 20-40 moderate skill, greater than 40 high skill.
  8. The 25% quartile, also defined as the first quartile cuts off the lowest 25% of data. The 75% quartile, also defined as the third quartile cuts off the lowest 75%. The interquartile range, also called the middle fifty, is a measure of statistical dispersion, being equal to the difference between the third and first quartiles.
  9. Further explanation of some technical terms is provided under the FAQ.


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