Seasonal Streamflow Forecasts

Probability distribution for Total inflow to Lake Eildon


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Product list for Total inflow to Lake Eildon


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Probability distribution for Total inflow to Lake Eildon(  )

Basic Statistics
Streamflow Forecast
(3 month total flow in GL)
Historical Reference
(3 month total flow in GL)
25% Quartile258.250357.523
Median415.359595.780
Mean457.890656.226
75% Quartile617.843892.222
Interquartile Range359.593534.700

Exceedance Probability
Exceedance Prob. of
Streamflow (%)
Streamflow Forecast
(3 month total flow in GL)
Historical Reference
(3 month total flow in GL)
11264.6331747.908
21118.9491568.067
31048.3121497.534
4995.4701439.508
5958.9921396.487
6921.6241336.537
7887.5531294.266
8868.3911254.620
9842.8561214.886
10825.0371184.888
11802.7951159.878
12782.1111132.123
13760.9071110.950
14744.9111089.621
15730.9081066.036
16717.7861047.200
17703.5971025.069
18690.2341002.372
19677.492982.259
20664.794966.318
21657.359950.835
22645.933933.504
23637.426921.323
24627.145903.473
25617.902892.228
26609.867882.509
27598.355867.642
28588.664855.779
29580.489841.926
30571.534826.598
31560.866812.500
32552.006798.104
33544.560786.684
34536.084775.379
35527.898759.786
36517.872747.256
37510.875734.692
38502.490722.923
39494.826713.217
40487.380700.405
41481.205687.959
42474.042678.703
43465.691670.880
44457.515660.100
45448.721650.369
46442.791639.438
47433.797629.485
48426.782616.442
49421.397606.530
50415.359595.780
51408.034585.989
52403.887576.160
53397.552564.623
54391.597553.553
55384.698542.283
56376.519528.573
57369.243520.448
58361.545512.222
59354.765503.174
60349.981491.271
61344.237479.364
62338.706470.655
63334.207462.508
64327.940452.491
65322.537444.682
66316.110436.692
67310.876429.222
68304.843419.468
69300.129409.436
70292.897402.208
71287.333392.315
72278.747384.384
73271.975375.072
74264.968366.744
75258.250357.508
76251.080349.254
77244.271340.254
78237.965331.940
79231.709323.976
80222.163313.539
81215.452303.730
82207.876294.399
83201.125283.810
84191.258274.944
85185.228267.263
86179.296256.924
87172.663246.272
88164.435237.704
89153.634227.430
90146.072216.021
91138.472205.386
92129.990192.849
93118.657179.509
94105.524163.297
9594.273151.697
9681.346138.357
9770.389118.912
9851.346102.157
9924.09382.581


About the probability distribution product


  1. The forecast is a simulation from the Bayesian Joint Probability (BJP) Model. The simulation comprises 5000 members.
  2. The forecast skill of the BJP model is different for different forecast periods of the year. Please look at the Model Validation results to assess model skill for this forecast period.
  3. The historical reference is a probabilistic representation of the historical data.
  4. The forecast location name is displayed in the graph title. Site forecast locations are followed by the Australian Water Resources Council (AWRC) river station number in brackets e.g. (405219).
  5. The streamflow data used for new forecasts and for verification is from realtime data sources which are not rigorously quality controlled.
  6. The historical reference plot and the historical data plots are derived from the available historical record. The legend shows the year associated with the start month of the forecast period.
  7. The RMSEP skill scores have been defined as less than 10 very low skill, 10-20 low skill, 20-40 moderate skill, greater than 40 high skill.
  8. The 25% quartile, also defined as the first quartile cuts off the lowest 25% of data. The 75% quartile, also defined as the third quartile cuts off the lowest 75%. The interquartile range, also called the middle fifty, is a measure of statistical dispersion, being equal to the difference between the third and first quartiles.
  9. Further explanation of some technical terms is provided under the FAQ.


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