Seasonal Streamflow Forecasts

Probability distribution for Total inflow to Lake Eildon


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Product list for Total inflow to Lake Eildon


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Probability distribution for Total inflow to Lake Eildon(  )

Basic Statistics
Streamflow Forecast
(3 month total flow in GL)
Historical Reference
(3 month total flow in GL)
25% Quartile438.929343.652
Median597.072540.967
Mean624.089570.351
75% Quartile787.489762.295
Interquartile Range348.560418.643

Exceedance Probability
Exceedance Prob. of
Streamflow (%)
Streamflow Forecast
(3 month total flow in GL)
Historical Reference
(3 month total flow in GL)
11318.6861366.359
21202.6451240.498
31154.1171191.079
41108.4081150.389
51069.6821120.196
61043.5941078.077
71021.1591048.342
81001.7841020.419
9980.072992.396
10964.308971.209
11946.758953.524
12932.305933.871
13916.318918.860
14901.551903.717
15887.329886.949
16877.242873.536
17866.303857.753
18853.601841.536
19845.332827.137
20834.098815.705
21826.374804.582
22815.768792.110
23805.178783.329
24795.423770.437
25787.650762.299
26779.893755.256
27770.551744.463
28759.492735.834
29752.077725.736
30743.695714.537
31734.867704.209
32727.289693.635
33720.259685.226
34713.089676.882
35708.782665.341
36700.930656.037
37690.621646.681
38681.413637.891
39673.428630.622
40667.006620.998
41659.802611.616
42651.146604.617
43643.071598.686
44637.051590.491
45630.366583.069
46623.742574.703
47616.369567.059
48609.949557.000
49603.485549.325
50597.072540.967
51590.961533.324
52584.843525.620
53579.895516.538
54573.469507.780
55567.315498.820
56561.598487.855
57555.598481.323
58550.149474.682
59544.043467.345
60538.024457.641
61532.346447.870
62525.081440.682
63518.513433.926
64510.593425.574
65502.208419.029
66496.241412.299
67491.732405.977
68486.002397.676
69479.929389.082
70472.194382.855
71463.446374.282
72456.942367.367
73451.436359.197
74444.103351.846
75438.757343.638
76430.915336.256
77422.759328.154
78416.632320.620
79408.438313.357
80400.815303.770
81393.784294.687
82385.522285.980
83376.457276.017
84368.202267.610
85359.884260.276
86351.576250.331
87342.711239.996
88333.497231.614
89322.440221.487
90312.883210.139
91302.455199.465
92290.493186.764
93278.794173.111
94265.898156.328
95248.928144.194
96235.137130.118
97213.692109.374
98191.10691.301
99153.60469.978


About the probability distribution product


  1. The forecast is a simulation from the Bayesian Joint Probability (BJP) Model. The simulation comprises 5000 members.
  2. The forecast skill of the BJP model is different for different forecast periods of the year. Please look at the Model Validation results to assess model skill for this forecast period.
  3. The historical reference is a probabilistic representation of the historical data.
  4. The forecast location name is displayed in the graph title. Site forecast locations are followed by the Australian Water Resources Council (AWRC) river station number in brackets e.g. (405219).
  5. The streamflow data used for new forecasts and for verification is from realtime data sources which are not rigorously quality controlled.
  6. The historical reference plot and the historical data plots are derived from the available historical record. The legend shows the year associated with the start month of the forecast period.
  7. The RMSEP skill scores have been defined as less than 10 very low skill, 10-20 low skill, 20-40 moderate skill, greater than 40 high skill.
  8. The 25% quartile, also defined as the first quartile cuts off the lowest 25% of data. The 75% quartile, also defined as the third quartile cuts off the lowest 75%. The interquartile range, also called the middle fifty, is a measure of statistical dispersion, being equal to the difference between the third and first quartiles.
  9. Further explanation of some technical terms is provided under the FAQ.


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