Seasonal Streamflow Forecasts

Probability distribution for Total inflow to Lake Eildon


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Product list for Total inflow to Lake Eildon


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Probability distribution for Total inflow to Lake Eildon(  )

Basic Statistics
Streamflow Forecast
(3 month total flow in GL)
Historical Reference
(3 month total flow in GL)
25% Quartile52.24561.309
Median73.14696.605
Mean81.893118.788
75% Quartile103.110150.058
Interquartile Range50.86488.749

Exceedance Probability
Exceedance Prob. of
Streamflow (%)
Streamflow Forecast
(3 month total flow in GL)
Historical Reference
(3 month total flow in GL)
1230.644455.815
2195.034363.215
3179.933332.100
4169.577308.432
5162.566291.928
6154.944270.316
7148.963255.988
8144.080243.194
9140.260230.964
10136.904222.105
11133.970214.956
12130.598207.263
13127.588201.561
14125.051195.957
15122.864189.918
16120.177185.212
17117.946179.811
18115.455174.411
19113.337169.740
20111.395166.111
21109.776162.648
22108.005158.841
23106.123156.209
24104.648152.413
25103.119150.059
26101.522148.047
27100.492145.010
2899.287142.621
2997.723139.867
3096.305136.867
3194.801134.148
3293.803131.412
3392.421129.269
3490.781127.172
3589.498124.317
3688.255122.054
3787.099119.811
3885.930117.734
3984.785116.038
4083.553113.823
4182.485111.694
4281.493110.127
4380.120108.811
4478.782107.013
4578.068105.404
4676.929103.612
4775.958101.994
4875.08499.892
4974.29598.309
5073.14696.605
5172.18095.066
5271.20093.530
5370.34491.742
5469.67590.038
5568.83988.316
5667.93086.238
5766.84285.014
5865.79883.780
5964.96782.430
6064.25780.663
6163.26478.905
6262.60777.626
6361.71076.433
6460.99374.972
6560.09573.837
6659.27872.678
6758.54571.598
6857.67770.190
6956.93668.746
7056.29067.708
7155.12366.289
7254.48565.152
7353.64563.819
7452.92662.628
7552.23961.307
7651.32860.126
7750.37258.838
7849.32857.647
7948.43556.505
8047.55155.005
8146.47353.592
8245.27252.244
8344.30950.708
8443.27749.416
8542.27948.292
8641.16546.772
8740.18245.194
8838.78443.916
8937.79542.372
9036.37440.640
9135.25439.007
9233.72937.055
9332.07934.944
9430.74232.319
9528.97330.396
9627.02728.129
9724.50624.699
9821.88721.594
9917.85517.739


About the probability distribution product


  1. The forecast is a simulation from the Bayesian Joint Probability (BJP) Model. The simulation comprises 5000 members.
  2. The forecast skill of the BJP model is different for different forecast periods of the year. Please look at the Model Validation results to assess model skill for this forecast period.
  3. The historical reference is a probabilistic representation of the historical data.
  4. The forecast location name is displayed in the graph title. Site forecast locations are followed by the Australian Water Resources Council (AWRC) river station number in brackets e.g. (405219).
  5. The streamflow data used for new forecasts and for verification is from realtime data sources which are not rigorously quality controlled.
  6. The historical reference plot and the historical data plots are derived from the available historical record. The legend shows the year associated with the start month of the forecast period.
  7. The RMSEP skill scores have been defined as less than 10 very low skill, 10-20 low skill, 20-40 moderate skill, greater than 40 high skill.
  8. The 25% quartile, also defined as the first quartile cuts off the lowest 25% of data. The 75% quartile, also defined as the third quartile cuts off the lowest 75%. The interquartile range, also called the middle fifty, is a measure of statistical dispersion, being equal to the difference between the third and first quartiles.
  9. Further explanation of some technical terms is provided under the FAQ.


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