Seasonal Streamflow Forecasts

Probability distribution for Total inflow to Lake Eildon


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Product list for Total inflow to Lake Eildon



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Probability distribution for Total inflow to Lake Eildon ( Feb 2014 )

Basic Statistics
Streamflow Forecast
(3 month total flow in GL)
Historical Reference
(3 month total flow in GL)
25% Quartile13.86431.183
Median22.86749.634
Mean26.34261.749
75% Quartile34.32777.948
Interquartile Range20.46246.765

Exceedance Probability
Exceedance Prob. of
Streamflow (%)
Streamflow Forecast
(3 month total flow in GL)
Historical Reference
(3 month total flow in GL)
188.795244.301
276.097193.370
366.604176.345
462.676163.428
559.272154.439
656.473142.692
754.251134.921
852.085127.993
950.256121.381
1048.658116.599
1147.259112.743
1245.587108.600
1344.377105.531
1443.359102.518
1542.12299.274
1641.19596.749
1740.14193.853
1839.44790.959
1938.61588.459
2037.81686.518
2136.93884.667
2236.17582.634
2335.60281.229
2434.94079.204
2534.32877.949
2633.82376.877
2733.36375.259
2832.64773.987
2931.98372.522
3031.45570.927
3130.99369.482
3230.51368.030
3329.95466.892
3429.51965.780
3529.12964.266
3628.56563.067
3728.18961.880
3827.72760.780
3927.25959.883
4026.89658.712
4126.46057.587
4226.00256.759
4325.50256.065
4425.21755.116
4524.70754.267
4624.31853.322
4723.93352.470
4823.59251.363
4923.18650.530
5022.86749.634
5122.56648.824
5222.12348.017
5321.73347.077
5421.34946.183
5521.00345.279
5620.70644.189
5720.46443.548
5820.11242.902
5919.72342.195
6019.32341.270
6118.83240.351
6218.52039.682
6318.23939.059
6417.99038.296
6517.65637.703
6617.28137.099
6716.93136.535
6816.53535.802
6916.19235.050
7015.81034.509
7115.36733.771
7214.98133.180
7314.66732.487
7414.20831.868
7513.86431.182
7613.59030.569
7713.16329.901
7812.84029.284
7912.55428.692
8012.14827.916
8111.79527.185
8211.46526.488
8311.16825.694
8410.82625.028
8510.36724.448
869.96323.664
879.45522.852
889.06722.195
898.52221.401
907.93020.512
917.42119.674
926.85718.674
936.32717.594
945.77416.254
954.93715.273
963.90614.120
972.86112.379
981.40310.808
990.0008.864


About the probability distribution product


  1. The forecast is a simulation from the Bayesian Joint Probability (BJP) Model. The simulation comprises 5000 members.
  2. The forecast skill of the BJP model is different for different forecast periods of the year. Please look at the Model Validation results to assess model skill for this forecast period.
  3. The historical reference is a probabilistic representation of the historical data.
  4. The forecast location name is displayed in the graph title. Site forecast locations are followed by the Australian Water Resources Council (AWRC) river station number in brackets e.g. (405219).
  5. The streamflow data used for new forecasts and for verification is from realtime data sources which are not rigorously quality controlled.
  6. The historical reference plot and the historical data plots are derived from the available historical record. The legend shows the year associated with the start month of the forecast period.
  7. The RMSEP skill scores have been defined as less than 10 very low skill, 10-20 low skill, 20-40 moderate skill, greater than 40 high skill.
  8. The 25% quartile, also defined as the first quartile cuts off the lowest 25% of data. The 75% quartile, also defined as the third quartile cuts off the lowest 75%. The interquartile range, also called the middle fifty, is a measure of statistical dispersion, being equal to the difference between the third and first quartiles.
  9. Further explanation of some technical terms is provided under the FAQ.


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