Seasonal Streamflow Forecasts

Probability distribution for Total inflow to Lake Eildon


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Product list for Total inflow to Lake Eildon



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Probability distribution for Total inflow to Lake Eildon ( Jan 2014 )

Basic Statistics
Streamflow Forecast
(3 month total flow in GL)
Historical Reference
(3 month total flow in GL)
25% Quartile40.37437.649
Median59.32558.577
Mean65.15566.987
75% Quartile84.06286.653
Interquartile Range43.68749.004

Exceedance Probability
Exceedance Prob. of
Streamflow (%)
Streamflow Forecast
(3 month total flow in GL)
Historical Reference
(3 month total flow in GL)
1180.878212.970
2160.260178.466
3145.655166.317
4135.701156.855
5130.151150.133
6126.237141.162
7120.667135.101
8116.789129.607
9113.515124.277
10110.640120.365
11108.475117.176
12105.306113.711
13102.992111.119
14100.838108.550
1598.950105.760
1697.156103.567
1795.022101.032
1893.41798.475
1991.87696.245
2090.44594.502
2189.07392.827
2287.81390.975
2386.78089.687
2485.44487.818
2584.06886.653
2682.82285.654
2781.59684.137
2879.98782.938
2978.91781.549
3077.94280.026
3176.88978.639
3275.96177.234
3375.03676.129
3474.30075.042
3573.06473.554
3672.08472.368
3771.37371.187
3870.41270.088
3969.33669.186
4068.04368.002
4167.02566.860
4266.02666.014
4365.15765.302
4464.10864.325
4563.35363.446
4662.55262.464
4761.74561.573
4860.80760.409
4960.08359.529
5059.32558.577
5158.43957.713
5257.70056.847
5356.87055.834
5456.17954.863
5555.47953.878
5654.78352.681
5754.07851.973
5853.40651.256
5952.62950.469
6051.85349.433
6151.07448.396
6250.20247.638
6349.58546.928
6448.83846.054
6547.99245.372
6647.24144.673
6746.44544.019
6845.65843.162
6944.99042.279
7044.10941.641
7143.40340.764
7242.80840.059
7342.08139.227
7441.10738.481
7540.37437.648
7639.20336.900
7738.27836.079
7837.45735.317
7936.43434.581
8035.57933.610
8134.66332.688
8233.67731.803
8332.82030.788
8431.78829.929
8530.77629.176
8629.68628.151
8728.65627.078
8827.76626.202
8926.40625.136
9025.11223.928
9123.92422.778
9222.53121.388
9321.29519.864
9419.85117.940
9518.16016.506
9616.11714.789
9713.80212.131
9810.4039.655
996.7096.473


About the probability distribution product


  1. The forecast is a simulation from the Bayesian Joint Probability (BJP) Model. The simulation comprises 5000 members.
  2. The forecast skill of the BJP model is different for different forecast periods of the year. Please look at the Model Validation results to assess model skill for this forecast period.
  3. The historical reference is a probabilistic representation of the historical data.
  4. The forecast location name is displayed in the graph title. Site forecast locations are followed by the Australian Water Resources Council (AWRC) river station number in brackets e.g. (405219).
  5. The streamflow data used for new forecasts and for verification is from realtime data sources which are not rigorously quality controlled.
  6. The historical reference plot and the historical data plots are derived from the available historical record. The legend shows the year associated with the start month of the forecast period.
  7. The RMSEP skill scores have been defined as less than 10 very low skill, 10-20 low skill, 20-40 moderate skill, greater than 40 high skill.
  8. The 25% quartile, also defined as the first quartile cuts off the lowest 25% of data. The 75% quartile, also defined as the third quartile cuts off the lowest 75%. The interquartile range, also called the middle fifty, is a measure of statistical dispersion, being equal to the difference between the third and first quartiles.
  9. Further explanation of some technical terms is provided under the FAQ.


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