Seasonal Streamflow Forecasts

Probability distribution for Total inflow to Lake Eildon


Return to catchment list
Product list for Total inflow to Lake Eildon



Download forecast data
Probability distribution for Total inflow to Lake Eildon ( Jan 2009 )

Basic Statistics
Streamflow Forecast
(3 month total flow in GL)
Historical Reference
(3 month total flow in GL)
25% Quartile39.65337.649
Median58.42658.577
Mean64.14266.987
75% Quartile82.85586.653
Interquartile Range43.20149.004

Exceedance Probability
Exceedance Prob. of
Streamflow (%)
Streamflow Forecast
(3 month total flow in GL)
Historical Reference
(3 month total flow in GL)
1178.837212.970
2158.559178.466
3143.633166.317
4133.809156.855
5128.836150.133
6124.620141.162
7119.294135.101
8115.296129.607
9111.948124.277
10109.247120.365
11106.904117.176
12103.979113.711
13101.736111.119
1499.428108.550
1597.609105.760
1695.664103.567
1793.785101.032
1892.11798.475
1990.69696.245
2089.28594.502
2187.77192.827
2286.58290.975
2385.47489.687
2484.05787.818
2582.86886.653
2681.60885.654
2780.33084.137
2878.82982.938
2977.73281.549
3076.79580.026
3175.73778.639
3274.85477.234
3373.96076.129
3473.10175.042
3572.05073.554
3670.87372.368
3770.26371.187
3869.31270.088
3968.27569.186
4067.03868.002
4166.04466.860
4264.96366.014
4364.17465.302
4463.09864.325
4562.31663.446
4661.47262.464
4760.69961.573
4859.85060.409
4959.14559.529
5058.42658.577
5157.57057.713
5256.71656.847
5355.93055.834
5455.23654.863
5554.55153.878
5653.84952.681
5753.16051.973
5852.58651.256
5951.73650.469
6050.93249.433
6150.16048.396
6249.37447.638
6348.75046.928
6447.94746.054
6547.17545.372
6646.42544.673
6745.59944.019
6844.87043.162
6944.18642.279
7043.26841.641
7142.58440.764
7241.99640.059
7341.29139.227
7440.38338.481
7539.65137.648
7638.53236.900
7737.52036.079
7836.61235.317
7935.79234.581
8034.88833.610
8133.89132.688
8233.04731.803
8332.11830.788
8431.12129.929
8530.08729.176
8629.05128.151
8728.10627.078
8827.09626.202
8925.80525.136
9024.56823.928
9123.34422.778
9221.89021.388
9320.74419.864
9419.37117.940
9517.70116.506
9615.65414.789
9713.20312.131
989.9839.655
996.1726.473


About the probability distribution product


  1. The forecast is a simulation from the Bayesian Joint Probability (BJP) Model. The simulation comprises 5000 members.
  2. The forecast skill of the BJP model is different for different forecast periods of the year. Please look at the Model Validation results to assess model skill for this forecast period.
  3. The historical reference is a probabilistic representation of the historical data.
  4. The forecast location name is displayed in the graph title. Site forecast locations are followed by the Australian Water Resources Council (AWRC) river station number in brackets e.g. (405219).
  5. The streamflow data used for new forecasts and for verification is from realtime data sources which are not rigorously quality controlled.
  6. The historical reference plot and the historical data plots are derived from the available historical record. The legend shows the year associated with the start month of the forecast period.
  7. The RMSEP skill scores have been defined as less than 10 very low skill, 10-20 low skill, 20-40 moderate skill, greater than 40 high skill.
  8. The 25% quartile, also defined as the first quartile cuts off the lowest 25% of data. The 75% quartile, also defined as the third quartile cuts off the lowest 75%. The interquartile range, also called the middle fifty, is a measure of statistical dispersion, being equal to the difference between the third and first quartiles.
  9. Further explanation of some technical terms is provided under the FAQ.


Creative Commons By Attribution logo
Unless otherwise noted, all material on this page is licensed under the Creative Commons Attribution Australia Licence