Seasonal Streamflow Forecasts

Probability distribution for Total inflow to Lake Eildon


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Product list for Total inflow to Lake Eildon



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Probability distribution for Total inflow to Lake Eildon ( Jan 2010 )

Basic Statistics
Streamflow Forecast
(3 month total flow in GL)
Historical Reference
(3 month total flow in GL)
25% Quartile28.16437.649
Median44.15758.577
Mean49.25966.987
75% Quartile64.99886.653
Interquartile Range36.83449.004

Exceedance Probability
Exceedance Prob. of
Streamflow (%)
Streamflow Forecast
(3 month total flow in GL)
Historical Reference
(3 month total flow in GL)
1148.711212.970
2128.979178.466
3117.610166.317
4110.420156.855
5103.488150.133
698.819141.162
795.728135.101
893.686129.607
990.313124.277
1088.000120.365
1185.576117.176
1283.063113.711
1381.289111.119
1479.394108.550
1577.954105.760
1676.061103.567
1774.676101.032
1873.29098.475
1971.97896.245
2070.90494.502
2169.65092.827
2268.34890.975
2367.21689.687
2466.05287.818
2565.02586.653
2663.89485.654
2762.61384.137
2861.73082.938
2960.75481.549
3059.90180.026
3159.14278.639
3258.36077.234
3357.47076.129
3456.77175.042
3555.81673.554
3654.94772.368
3754.09971.187
3853.20570.088
3952.36669.186
4051.64968.002
4150.97666.860
4250.20066.014
4349.20065.302
4448.40164.325
4547.58663.446
4647.05362.464
4746.31861.573
4845.56060.409
4944.93959.529
5044.15758.577
5143.51457.713
5242.93156.847
5342.24555.834
5441.59554.863
5541.01453.878
5640.32652.681
5739.58951.973
5838.94351.256
5938.39250.469
6037.94749.433
6137.38348.396
6236.74347.638
6336.09146.928
6435.48746.054
6534.83845.372
6634.16044.673
6733.55144.019
6832.87643.162
6931.91442.279
7031.27441.641
7130.66340.764
7230.17340.059
7329.51839.227
7428.80938.481
7528.16337.648
7627.27836.900
7726.58936.079
7825.85835.317
7925.00734.581
8024.14733.610
8123.41832.688
8222.73331.803
8322.02930.788
8421.31529.929
8520.31929.176
8619.49828.151
8718.61527.078
8817.70426.202
8916.66525.136
9015.58123.928
9114.53622.778
9213.27721.388
9312.33019.864
9411.20217.940
959.66816.506
968.20414.789
976.11312.131
983.1739.655
990.3146.473


About the probability distribution product


  1. The forecast is a simulation from the Bayesian Joint Probability (BJP) Model. The simulation comprises 5000 members.
  2. The forecast skill of the BJP model is different for different forecast periods of the year. Please look at the Model Validation results to assess model skill for this forecast period.
  3. The historical reference is a probabilistic representation of the historical data.
  4. The forecast location name is displayed in the graph title. Site forecast locations are followed by the Australian Water Resources Council (AWRC) river station number in brackets e.g. (405219).
  5. The streamflow data used for new forecasts and for verification is from realtime data sources which are not rigorously quality controlled.
  6. The historical reference plot and the historical data plots are derived from the available historical record. The legend shows the year associated with the start month of the forecast period.
  7. The RMSEP skill scores have been defined as less than 10 very low skill, 10-20 low skill, 20-40 moderate skill, greater than 40 high skill.
  8. The 25% quartile, also defined as the first quartile cuts off the lowest 25% of data. The 75% quartile, also defined as the third quartile cuts off the lowest 75%. The interquartile range, also called the middle fifty, is a measure of statistical dispersion, being equal to the difference between the third and first quartiles.
  9. Further explanation of some technical terms is provided under the FAQ.


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