Seasonal Streamflow Forecasts

Probability distribution for Total inflow to Lake Eildon


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Product list for Total inflow to Lake Eildon



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Probability distribution for Total inflow to Lake Eildon ( Jan 2011 )

Basic Statistics
Streamflow Forecast
(3 month total flow in GL)
Historical Reference
(3 month total flow in GL)
25% Quartile78.61937.649
Median108.09858.577
Mean117.33866.987
75% Quartile145.77986.653
Interquartile Range67.16049.004

Exceedance Probability
Exceedance Prob. of
Streamflow (%)
Streamflow Forecast
(3 month total flow in GL)
Historical Reference
(3 month total flow in GL)
1298.947212.970
2263.457178.466
3243.984166.317
4232.278156.855
5220.926150.133
6212.914141.162
7204.104135.101
8198.766129.607
9192.564124.277
10188.839120.365
11184.776117.176
12179.337113.711
13176.171111.119
14172.646108.550
15169.889105.760
16167.517103.567
17164.834101.032
18162.95598.475
19159.92596.245
20157.72694.502
21155.16292.827
22152.41690.975
23150.14589.687
24147.73787.818
25145.78486.653
26144.29185.654
27142.26284.137
28140.66382.938
29139.15981.549
30137.31580.026
31135.71678.639
32134.02277.234
33132.39976.129
34130.83375.042
35128.97973.554
36127.50972.368
37126.15071.187
38124.86470.088
39123.44069.186
40122.19368.002
41120.44866.860
42118.93266.014
43118.01765.302
44116.33364.325
45115.19463.446
46113.92662.464
47112.40661.573
48111.04460.409
49109.58759.529
50108.09858.577
51106.62557.713
52105.38656.847
53104.31855.834
54103.03654.863
55101.78453.878
56100.70752.681
5799.47551.973
5898.33651.256
5997.19050.469
6095.83849.433
6194.91648.396
6293.69947.638
6392.27246.928
6491.33246.054
6590.32245.372
6688.96444.673
6787.95244.019
6886.81043.162
6985.77542.279
7084.76441.641
7183.50940.764
7282.40340.059
7381.02539.227
7479.87838.481
7578.60437.648
7677.32736.900
7775.88536.079
7874.55235.317
7972.60634.581
8071.12533.610
8169.82332.688
8268.56531.803
8367.24230.788
8465.49029.929
8564.11229.176
8662.62128.151
8761.00527.078
8859.03826.202
8957.31425.136
9055.04123.928
9153.13722.778
9250.55821.388
9347.97819.864
9445.43917.940
9543.03716.506
9640.99614.789
9737.38412.131
9832.7129.655
9926.0156.473


About the probability distribution product


  1. The forecast is a simulation from the Bayesian Joint Probability (BJP) Model. The simulation comprises 5000 members.
  2. The forecast skill of the BJP model is different for different forecast periods of the year. Please look at the Model Validation results to assess model skill for this forecast period.
  3. The historical reference is a probabilistic representation of the historical data.
  4. The forecast location name is displayed in the graph title. Site forecast locations are followed by the Australian Water Resources Council (AWRC) river station number in brackets e.g. (405219).
  5. The streamflow data used for new forecasts and for verification is from realtime data sources which are not rigorously quality controlled.
  6. The historical reference plot and the historical data plots are derived from the available historical record. The legend shows the year associated with the start month of the forecast period.
  7. The RMSEP skill scores have been defined as less than 10 very low skill, 10-20 low skill, 20-40 moderate skill, greater than 40 high skill.
  8. The 25% quartile, also defined as the first quartile cuts off the lowest 25% of data. The 75% quartile, also defined as the third quartile cuts off the lowest 75%. The interquartile range, also called the middle fifty, is a measure of statistical dispersion, being equal to the difference between the third and first quartiles.
  9. Further explanation of some technical terms is provided under the FAQ.


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