Seasonal Streamflow Forecasts

Probability distribution for Total inflow to Lake Eildon


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Product list for Total inflow to Lake Eildon



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Probability distribution for Total inflow to Lake Eildon ( Jan 2012 )

Basic Statistics
Streamflow Forecast
(3 month total flow in GL)
Historical Reference
(3 month total flow in GL)
25% Quartile39.11237.649
Median57.79758.577
Mean63.47166.987
75% Quartile81.98586.653
Interquartile Range42.87249.004

Exceedance Probability
Exceedance Prob. of
Streamflow (%)
Streamflow Forecast
(3 month total flow in GL)
Historical Reference
(3 month total flow in GL)
1177.098212.970
2157.377178.466
3142.320166.317
4132.319156.855
5127.786150.133
6123.603141.162
7117.998135.101
8114.187129.607
9110.896124.277
10108.392120.365
11105.895117.176
12102.992113.711
13100.785111.119
1498.594108.550
1596.710105.760
1694.683103.567
1792.862101.032
1891.29198.475
1989.85796.245
2088.40194.502
2186.95392.827
2285.73990.975
2384.70489.687
2483.20587.818
2582.00286.653
2680.79685.654
2779.48384.137
2878.06382.938
2976.87781.549
3076.13580.026
3175.02178.639
3274.04777.234
3373.25976.129
3472.37475.042
3571.39973.554
3670.19972.368
3769.44171.187
3868.56170.088
3967.51169.186
4066.21368.002
4165.34666.860
4264.29666.014
4363.45865.302
4462.47264.325
4561.62663.446
4660.85862.464
4760.05761.573
4859.22060.409
4958.44359.529
5057.79758.577
5156.97757.713
5256.10056.847
5355.29855.834
5454.63854.863
5553.93953.878
5653.27152.681
5752.60751.973
5851.99351.256
5951.16250.469
6050.34549.433
6149.61248.396
6248.84447.638
6348.20246.928
6447.32646.054
6546.61345.372
6645.81344.673
6745.06444.019
6844.28343.162
6943.64342.279
7042.73741.641
7142.03440.764
7241.39740.059
7340.69739.227
7439.90638.481
7539.10837.648
7638.10036.900
7737.04036.079
7836.09435.317
7935.30234.581
8034.45733.610
8133.49432.688
8232.55431.803
8331.67930.788
8430.63029.929
8529.65329.176
8628.63028.151
8727.72727.078
8826.69126.202
8925.34425.136
9024.18823.928
9122.92722.778
9221.57921.388
9320.34519.864
9419.05517.940
9517.39116.506
9615.28114.789
9712.85012.131
989.6469.655
995.8966.473


About the probability distribution product


  1. The forecast is a simulation from the Bayesian Joint Probability (BJP) Model. The simulation comprises 5000 members.
  2. The forecast skill of the BJP model is different for different forecast periods of the year. Please look at the Model Validation results to assess model skill for this forecast period.
  3. The historical reference is a probabilistic representation of the historical data.
  4. The forecast location name is displayed in the graph title. Site forecast locations are followed by the Australian Water Resources Council (AWRC) river station number in brackets e.g. (405219).
  5. The streamflow data used for new forecasts and for verification is from realtime data sources which are not rigorously quality controlled.
  6. The historical reference plot and the historical data plots are derived from the available historical record. The legend shows the year associated with the start month of the forecast period.
  7. The RMSEP skill scores have been defined as less than 10 very low skill, 10-20 low skill, 20-40 moderate skill, greater than 40 high skill.
  8. The 25% quartile, also defined as the first quartile cuts off the lowest 25% of data. The 75% quartile, also defined as the third quartile cuts off the lowest 75%. The interquartile range, also called the middle fifty, is a measure of statistical dispersion, being equal to the difference between the third and first quartiles.
  9. Further explanation of some technical terms is provided under the FAQ.


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