Seasonal Streamflow Forecasts

Historical and exceedance probability for Total inflow to Lake Eildon


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Product list for Total inflow to Lake Eildon


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Historical and exceedance probability for Total inflow to Lake Eildon( Oct 2014 )

Historical Observations
Average (1950+) (GL)Last year (2013) (GL)Minimum (2006) (GL)10 yr average (2004+) (GL)Maximum (1992) (GL)
Oct197.015108.42912.26092.916435.278
Oct-Nov301.702156.07120.554163.326605.644
Oct-Dec367.403204.70625.186224.785845.309

Notes:

  • The minimum and maximum are determined from the total for the 3 month period.

Exceedance Probability Summary
Exceedance Prob. of
Streamflow (%)
Streamflow Forecast
(3 month total flow in GL)
Historical Reference
(3 month total flow in GL)
10650.427675.522
20546.802548.248
30473.532467.579
40418.641395.304
50368.964335.818
60324.271276.710
70277.580226.416
80231.039176.134
90177.107120.026

Exceedance Probability
Exceedance Prob. of
Streamflow (%)
Streamflow Forecast
(3 month total flow in GL)
Historical Reference
(3 month total flow in GL)
1943.8191006.506
2853.853900.509
3806.696858.986
4782.948824.854
5748.122799.568
6723.397764.364
7699.858739.566
8682.601716.331
9664.761693.068
10650.427675.522
11637.758660.906
12624.211644.699
13613.810632.347
14604.215619.913
15595.132606.175
16587.214595.213
17576.665582.346
18564.819569.161
19555.820557.490
20546.802548.248
21539.894539.278
22531.449529.247
23521.594522.201
24513.136511.885
25506.696505.392
26500.220499.783
27492.949491.209
28486.136484.373
29479.892476.396
30473.532467.579
31465.685459.475
32459.424451.208
33453.600444.655
34449.546438.173
35444.109429.240
36440.111422.068
37435.126414.883
38430.663408.158
39423.318402.615
40418.641395.304
41414.807388.208
42409.008382.934
43404.040378.478
44398.542372.343
45393.281366.808
46388.392360.595
47384.298354.941
48379.622347.537
49374.343341.914
50368.964335.818
51365.036330.269
52360.214324.702
53355.466318.171
54350.470311.906
55345.932305.532
56342.127297.782
57338.029293.190
58333.619288.543
59328.718283.432
60324.271276.710
61319.766269.987
62314.842265.070
63310.445260.471
64305.566254.816
65300.417250.408
66295.667245.896
67291.223241.678
68287.277236.169
69282.495230.501
70277.580226.416
71273.542220.823
72268.430216.337
73263.713211.067
74260.118206.352
75255.457201.118
76251.352196.437
77246.272191.329
78242.552186.605
79236.809182.076
80231.039176.134
81225.439170.540
82218.877165.212
83214.456159.154
84208.359154.072
85203.011149.662
86197.964143.715
87193.147137.572
88187.440132.617
89182.410126.662
90177.107120.026
91169.268113.817
92161.464106.468
93152.53498.608
94146.01088.993
95136.41182.065
96126.91874.045
97114.93762.234
98100.26951.924
9976.09339.688


About the historical and exceedance probablity product


  1. The forecast is a simulation from the Bayesian Joint Probability (BJP) Model. The simulation comprises 5000 members.
  2. The forecast skill of the BJP model is different for different forecast periods of the year. Please look at the Model Validation results to assess model skill for this forecast period.
  3. The historical reference is a probabilistic representation of the historical data.
  4. The forecast location name is displayed in the graph title. Site forecast locations are followed by the Australian Water Resources Council (AWRC) river station number in brackets e.g. (405219).
  5. The streamflow data used for new forecasts and for verification is from realtime data sources which are not rigorously quality controlled.
  6. The historical reference plot and the historical data plots are derived from the available historical record. The legend shows the year associated with the start month of the forecast period.
  7. The RMSEP skill scores have been defined as less than 10 very low skill, 10-20 low skill, 20-40 moderate skill, greater than 40 high skill.
  8. Further explanation of some technical terms is provided under the FAQ


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