Seasonal Streamflow Forecasts

Historical and exceedance probability for Total inflow to Lake Eildon


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Product list for Total inflow to Lake Eildon


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Historical and exceedance probability for Total inflow to Lake Eildon(  )

Historical Observations
Average (1950+) (GL)Last year (2011) (GL)Observed (2012) (GL)Minimum (2006) (GL)10 yr average (2002+) (GL)Maximum (1975) (GL)
Sep264.77496.190221.25924.477197.384563.760
Sep-Oct465.106185.235301.14636.737293.4471009.242
Sep-Nov571.797267.780338.62745.031367.6771247.563

Notes:

  • The minimum and maximum are determined from the total for the 3 month period.

Exceedance Probability Summary
Exceedance Prob. of
Streamflow (%)
Streamflow Forecast
(3 month total flow in GL)
Historical Reference
(3 month total flow in GL)
10716.447971.209
20601.790815.705
30524.214714.537
40460.217620.998
50404.839540.967
60351.309457.641
70301.562382.855
80250.585303.770
90185.078210.139

Exceedance Probability
Exceedance Prob. of
Streamflow (%)
Streamflow Forecast
(3 month total flow in GL)
Historical Reference
(3 month total flow in GL)
11044.8641366.359
2948.5841240.498
3903.0521191.079
4862.4461150.389
5828.9971120.196
6807.0251078.077
7777.6101048.342
8754.4851020.419
9733.854992.396
10716.447971.209
11702.357953.524
12687.852933.871
13673.624918.860
14661.463903.717
15650.859886.949
16639.221873.536
17631.276857.753
18618.288841.536
19610.064827.137
20601.790815.705
21593.415804.582
22584.882792.110
23576.379783.329
24566.802770.437
25559.737762.299
26552.861755.256
27543.738744.463
28536.791735.834
29530.091725.736
30524.214714.537
31517.633704.209
32508.425693.635
33502.404685.226
34496.070676.882
35488.872665.341
36483.318656.037
37478.773646.681
38472.521637.891
39466.313630.622
40460.217620.998
41454.393611.616
42448.657604.617
43442.219598.686
44436.042590.491
45430.087583.069
46425.242574.703
47420.596567.059
48415.117557.000
49410.170549.325
50404.839540.967
51399.049533.324
52393.520525.620
53387.973516.538
54382.621507.780
55376.056498.820
56371.310487.855
57365.701481.323
58360.349474.682
59355.287467.345
60351.309457.641
61346.931447.870
62341.559440.682
63335.796433.926
64330.899425.574
65326.202419.029
66322.168412.299
67317.572405.977
68312.092397.676
69307.222389.082
70301.562382.855
71297.185374.282
72291.784367.367
73287.444359.197
74282.623351.846
75276.673343.638
76271.955336.256
77267.507328.154
78261.624320.620
79256.693313.357
80250.585303.770
81245.966294.687
82240.275285.980
83232.708276.017
84226.598267.610
85218.328260.276
86212.469250.331
87206.797239.996
88199.727231.614
89192.072221.487
90185.078210.139
91177.721199.465
92168.709186.764
93160.804173.111
94151.445156.328
95142.454144.194
96127.737130.118
97115.667109.374
98100.70791.301
9974.11969.978


About the historical and exceedance probablity product


  1. The forecast is a simulation from the Bayesian Joint Probability (BJP) Model. The simulation comprises 5000 members.
  2. The forecast skill of the BJP model is different for different forecast periods of the year. Please look at the Model Validation results to assess model skill for this forecast period.
  3. The historical reference is a probabilistic representation of the historical data.
  4. The forecast location name is displayed in the graph title. Site forecast locations are followed by the Australian Water Resources Council (AWRC) river station number in brackets e.g. (405219).
  5. The streamflow data used for new forecasts and for verification is from realtime data sources which are not rigorously quality controlled.
  6. The historical reference plot and the historical data plots are derived from the available historical record. The legend shows the year associated with the start month of the forecast period.
  7. The RMSEP skill scores have been defined as less than 10 very low skill, 10-20 low skill, 20-40 moderate skill, greater than 40 high skill.
  8. Further explanation of some technical terms is provided under the FAQ


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