Seasonal Streamflow Forecasts

Historical and exceedance probability for Total inflow to Lake Eildon


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Product list for Total inflow to Lake Eildon


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Historical and exceedance probability for Total inflow to Lake Eildon(  )

Historical Observations
Average (1950+) (GL)Last year (2012) (GL)Observed (2013) (GL)Minimum (2006) (GL)10 yr average (2003+) (GL)Maximum (1952) (GL)
Nov105.59237.48147.6428.29474.949356.057
Nov-Dec171.56464.51396.27712.926135.961571.888
Nov-Jan203.85186.945101.25318.024165.304597.731

Notes:

  • The minimum and maximum are determined from the total for the 3 month period.

Exceedance Probability Summary
Exceedance Prob. of
Streamflow (%)
Streamflow Forecast
(3 month total flow in GL)
Historical Reference
(3 month total flow in GL)
10269.711376.759
20225.414288.678
30194.150240.931
40170.362202.383
50149.840172.826
60132.518144.740
70115.137121.559
8096.31798.110
9073.99470.722

Exceedance Probability
Exceedance Prob. of
Streamflow (%)
Streamflow Forecast
(3 month total flow in GL)
Historical Reference
(3 month total flow in GL)
1415.105715.517
2368.900586.037
3346.626540.980
4328.097506.657
5313.299481.622
6300.299449.971
7290.641428.546
8282.402409.032
9275.860390.359
10269.711376.759
11263.595365.744
12257.889353.887
13254.011344.975
14249.509336.091
15245.658326.577
16242.505319.218
17238.332310.557
18233.100301.895
19229.157294.452
20225.414288.678
21222.499283.124
22218.370276.762
23214.491272.711
24211.037266.479
25207.725262.699
26204.844259.428
27202.507254.332
28198.748250.336
29196.217245.946
30194.150240.931
31191.056236.482
32188.151231.820
33186.068228.257
34184.153224.915
35182.373220.023
36179.378216.309
37177.093212.501
38174.832209.045
39172.652206.139
40170.362202.383
41167.980198.747
42166.473196.114
43163.782193.823
44161.828190.779
45159.633188.038
46157.532184.899
47155.522182.193
48153.710178.558
49151.501175.764
50149.840172.826
51148.266170.154
52146.905167.533
53145.164164.310
54142.875161.432
55141.360158.238
56139.525154.714
57137.731152.548
58136.270150.328
59134.736147.978
60132.518144.740
61130.736141.683
62128.437139.422
63126.747137.266
64125.257134.701
65123.794132.659
66121.960130.571
67120.212128.619
68118.404126.071
69116.800123.449
70115.137121.559
71113.010118.970
72111.478116.892
73109.733114.448
74107.611112.258
75105.426109.823
76103.274107.641
77101.571105.254
7899.807103.041
7997.721100.913
8096.31798.110
8193.71495.461
8292.15992.924
8390.27490.024
8488.01887.577
8586.20985.441
8684.25582.541
8781.87679.520
8879.56377.063
8976.90174.082
9073.99470.722
9171.66367.537
9268.73063.711
9365.26459.543
9462.11154.321
9558.29850.462
9654.07945.878
9749.10238.859
9843.52032.413
9934.25924.268


About the historical and exceedance probablity product


  1. The forecast is a simulation from the Bayesian Joint Probability (BJP) Model. The simulation comprises 5000 members.
  2. The forecast skill of the BJP model is different for different forecast periods of the year. Please look at the Model Validation results to assess model skill for this forecast period.
  3. The historical reference is a probabilistic representation of the historical data.
  4. The forecast location name is displayed in the graph title. Site forecast locations are followed by the Australian Water Resources Council (AWRC) river station number in brackets e.g. (405219).
  5. The streamflow data used for new forecasts and for verification is from realtime data sources which are not rigorously quality controlled.
  6. The historical reference plot and the historical data plots are derived from the available historical record. The legend shows the year associated with the start month of the forecast period.
  7. The RMSEP skill scores have been defined as less than 10 very low skill, 10-20 low skill, 20-40 moderate skill, greater than 40 high skill.
  8. Further explanation of some technical terms is provided under the FAQ


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