Seasonal Streamflow Forecasts

Historical and exceedance probability for Total inflow to Lake Eildon


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Product list for Total inflow to Lake Eildon



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Historical and exceedance probability for Total inflow to Lake Eildon ( Mar 2014 )

Historical Observations
Average (1950+) (GL)Last year (2013) (GL)Observed (2014) (GL)Minimum (1953) (GL)10 yr average (2004+) (GL)Maximum (1956) (GL)
Mar19.31621.32411.2710.00027.54338.150
Mar-Apr47.48539.94530.9860.00051.086384.847
Mar-May111.08169.48472.61220.29083.923747.316

Notes:

  • The minimum and maximum are determined from the total for the 3 month period.

Exceedance Probability Summary
Exceedance Prob. of
Streamflow (%)
Historical Reference
(3 month total flow in GL)
10200.735
20142.912
30114.254
4092.553
5076.918
6062.940
7051.983
8041.635
9030.483

Exceedance Probability
Exceedance Prob. of
Streamflow (%)
Historical Reference
(3 month total flow in GL)
1472.156
2359.759
3323.302
4296.059
5277.328
6253.145
7237.340
8223.387
9210.196
10200.735
11193.158
12185.065
13179.108
14173.288
15167.057
16162.230
17156.722
18151.251
19146.547
20142.912
21139.458
22135.679
23133.077
24129.343
25127.036
26125.071
27122.115
28119.798
29117.139
30114.254
31111.651
32109.043
33107.008
34105.023
35102.332
36100.208
3798.111
3896.177
3994.603
4092.553
4190.592
4289.152
4387.948
4486.306
4584.842
4683.216
4781.754
4879.861
4978.441
5076.918
5175.546
5274.182
5372.600
5471.098
5569.586
5667.769
5766.704
5865.633
5964.464
6062.940
6161.432
6260.338
6359.321
6458.080
6557.119
6656.141
6755.232
6854.053
6952.847
7051.983
7150.806
7249.868
7348.771
7447.795
7546.716
7645.756
7744.713
7843.752
7942.835
8041.635
8140.511
8239.443
8338.233
8437.222
8536.345
8635.166
8733.950
8832.970
8931.794
9030.483
9129.257
9227.805
9326.248
9424.337
9522.954
9621.343
9718.947
9816.826
9914.258


About the historical and exceedance probablity product


  1. The forecast is a simulation from the Bayesian Joint Probability (BJP) Model. The simulation comprises 5000 members.
  2. The forecast skill of the BJP model is different for different forecast periods of the year. Please look at the Model Validation results to assess model skill for this forecast period.
  3. The historical reference is a probabilistic representation of the historical data.
  4. The forecast location name is displayed in the graph title. Site forecast locations are followed by the Australian Water Resources Council (AWRC) river station number in brackets e.g. (405219).
  5. The streamflow data used for new forecasts and for verification is from realtime data sources which are not rigorously quality controlled.
  6. The historical reference plot and the historical data plots are derived from the available historical record. The legend shows the year associated with the start month of the forecast period.
  7. The RMSEP skill scores have been defined as less than 10 very low skill, 10-20 low skill, 20-40 moderate skill, greater than 40 high skill.
  8. Further explanation of some technical terms is provided under the FAQ


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