Seasonal Streamflow Forecasts

Historical and exceedance probability for Total inflow to Lake Eildon


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Product list for Total inflow to Lake Eildon



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Historical and exceedance probability for Total inflow to Lake Eildon ( May 2014 )

Historical Observations
Average (1950+) (GL)Last year (2013) (GL)Observed (2014) (GL)Minimum (1967) (GL)10 yr average (2004+) (GL)Maximum (1956) (GL)
May63.59729.53941.62612.10032.836362.469
May-Jun187.10676.124172.18225.439118.876840.387
May-Jul418.105249.168497.58249.840286.9131397.322

Notes:

  • The minimum and maximum are determined from the total for the 3 month period.

Exceedance Probability Summary
Exceedance Prob. of
Streamflow (%)
Historical Reference
(3 month total flow in GL)
10839.126
20626.334
30503.171
40402.579
50327.294
60259.197
70206.218
80157.362
90107.055

Exceedance Probability
Exceedance Prob. of
Streamflow (%)
Historical Reference
(3 month total flow in GL)
11445.206
21246.852
31169.868
41107.017
51060.758
6996.866
7952.282
8910.870
9869.806
10839.126
11813.779
12785.915
13764.858
14743.828
15720.799
16702.585
17681.398
18659.916
19641.098
20626.334
21612.126
22596.379
23585.414
24569.500
25559.572
26551.052
27538.130
28527.917
29516.102
30503.171
31491.411
32479.536
33470.211
34461.066
35448.591
36438.684
37428.857
38419.747
39412.305
40402.579
41393.238
42386.358
43380.589
44372.707
45365.658
46357.818
47350.748
48341.583
49334.694
50327.294
51320.621
52313.985
53306.275
54298.956
55291.586
56282.725
57277.529
58272.309
59266.614
60259.197
61251.860
62246.545
63241.613
64235.598
65230.948
66226.223
67221.837
68216.155
69210.361
70206.218
71200.590
72196.111
73190.891
74186.258
75181.155
76176.626
77171.723
78167.222
79162.938
80157.362
81152.159
82147.243
83141.701
84137.091
85133.117
86127.799
87122.353
88117.995
89112.797
90107.055
91101.730
9295.485
9388.874
9480.879
9575.181
9668.648
9759.151
9850.980
9941.430


About the historical and exceedance probablity product


  1. The forecast is a simulation from the Bayesian Joint Probability (BJP) Model. The simulation comprises 5000 members.
  2. The forecast skill of the BJP model is different for different forecast periods of the year. Please look at the Model Validation results to assess model skill for this forecast period.
  3. The historical reference is a probabilistic representation of the historical data.
  4. The forecast location name is displayed in the graph title. Site forecast locations are followed by the Australian Water Resources Council (AWRC) river station number in brackets e.g. (405219).
  5. The streamflow data used for new forecasts and for verification is from realtime data sources which are not rigorously quality controlled.
  6. The historical reference plot and the historical data plots are derived from the available historical record. The legend shows the year associated with the start month of the forecast period.
  7. The RMSEP skill scores have been defined as less than 10 very low skill, 10-20 low skill, 20-40 moderate skill, greater than 40 high skill.
  8. Further explanation of some technical terms is provided under the FAQ


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