Seasonal Streamflow Forecasts

Historical and exceedance probability for Total inflow to Lake Eildon


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Historical and exceedance probability for Total inflow to Lake Eildon ( Jun 2014 )

Historical Observations
Average (1950+) (GL)Last year (2013) (GL)Observed (2014) (GL)Minimum (2006) (GL)10 yr average (2004+) (GL)Maximum (1956) (GL)
Jun123.50946.585130.55614.02086.040477.918
Jun-Jul354.508219.629455.95641.147254.0761034.853
Jun-Aug666.557729.722624.54168.247491.5251658.953

Notes:

  • The minimum and maximum are determined from the total for the 3 month period.

Exceedance Probability Summary
Exceedance Prob. of
Streamflow (%)
Streamflow Forecast
(3 month total flow in GL)
Historical Reference
(3 month total flow in GL)
101163.1861184.888
20990.556966.318
30881.797826.598
40782.829700.405
50694.963595.780
60608.472491.271
70531.877402.208
80432.276313.539
90320.588216.021

Exceedance Probability
Exceedance Prob. of
Streamflow (%)
Streamflow Forecast
(3 month total flow in GL)
Historical Reference
(3 month total flow in GL)
11638.2401747.908
21481.3401568.067
31411.4901497.534
41359.4561439.508
51303.5701396.487
61270.2611336.537
71241.8651294.266
81211.2471254.620
91186.3061214.886
101163.1861184.888
111140.1041159.878
121119.7791132.123
131101.5291110.950
141080.3101089.621
151060.9961066.036
161042.3101047.200
171028.2231025.069
181012.5481002.372
191000.272982.259
20990.556966.318
21977.966950.835
22966.381933.504
23951.100921.323
24939.885903.473
25931.052892.228
26921.630882.509
27910.177867.642
28900.067855.779
29891.414841.926
30881.797826.598
31867.313812.500
32858.020798.104
33848.445786.684
34839.165775.379
35830.430759.786
36820.073747.256
37813.450734.692
38803.035722.923
39794.094713.217
40782.829700.405
41774.261687.959
42764.731678.703
43754.929670.880
44743.894660.100
45735.761650.369
46724.348639.438
47715.989629.485
48708.263616.442
49701.952606.530
50694.963595.780
51685.718585.989
52676.137576.160
53668.291564.623
54660.210553.553
55650.048542.283
56640.226528.573
57633.149520.448
58625.857512.222
59618.312503.174
60608.472491.271
61601.447479.364
62593.592470.655
63586.404462.508
64579.042452.491
65570.890444.682
66564.355436.692
67557.116429.222
68548.179419.468
69540.158409.436
70531.877402.208
71522.178392.315
72512.703384.384
73502.034375.072
74493.674366.744
75483.402357.508
76474.743349.254
77462.378340.254
78453.005331.940
79443.403323.976
80432.276313.539
81421.977303.730
82412.569294.399
83402.413283.810
84392.065274.944
85380.823267.263
86370.448256.924
87357.329246.272
88346.164237.704
89334.367227.430
90320.588216.021
91302.838205.386
92290.162192.849
93273.578179.509
94255.243163.297
95236.671151.697
96213.024138.357
97185.094118.912
98161.501102.157
99126.91482.581


About the historical and exceedance probablity product


  1. The forecast is a simulation from the Bayesian Joint Probability (BJP) Model. The simulation comprises 5000 members.
  2. The forecast skill of the BJP model is different for different forecast periods of the year. Please look at the Model Validation results to assess model skill for this forecast period.
  3. The historical reference is a probabilistic representation of the historical data.
  4. The forecast location name is displayed in the graph title. Site forecast locations are followed by the Australian Water Resources Council (AWRC) river station number in brackets e.g. (405219).
  5. The streamflow data used for new forecasts and for verification is from realtime data sources which are not rigorously quality controlled.
  6. The historical reference plot and the historical data plots are derived from the available historical record. The legend shows the year associated with the start month of the forecast period.
  7. The RMSEP skill scores have been defined as less than 10 very low skill, 10-20 low skill, 20-40 moderate skill, greater than 40 high skill.
  8. Further explanation of some technical terms is provided under the FAQ


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