Seasonal Streamflow Forecasts

Exceedance probability for Unregulated inflow to Goulburn Weir


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Product list for Unregulated inflow to Goulburn Weir


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Exceedance probability for Unregulated inflow to Goulburn Weir( Aug 2014 )

Exceedance Probability Summary
Exceedance Prob. of
Streamflow (%)
Streamflow Forecast
(3 month total flow in GL)
Historical Reference
(3 month total flow in GL)
10964.0051210.080
20800.373961.992
30689.827807.019
40596.684670.781
50522.772561.322
60463.078455.709
70397.385368.834
80327.918285.102
90247.728195.678

Exceedance Probability
Exceedance Prob. of
Streamflow (%)
Streamflow Forecast
(3 month total flow in GL)
Historical Reference
(3 month total flow in GL)
11441.4991862.185
21288.7291652.935
31202.4081571.023
41152.7031503.731
51107.5021453.907
61071.0211384.593
71039.0251335.817
81007.3021290.155
9982.3031244.486
10964.0051210.080
11945.1941181.447
12926.2051149.732
13904.5051125.587
14887.9551101.306
15871.1431074.513
16857.1651053.161
17841.5111028.129
18827.5901002.521
19815.106979.888
20800.373961.992
21785.329944.647
22774.267925.277
23764.054911.694
24754.465891.837
25742.647879.357
26733.246868.589
27722.000852.155
28713.055839.073
29699.841823.832
30689.827807.019
31681.498791.601
32671.305775.906
33661.998763.489
34652.321751.230
35641.278734.373
36631.529720.874
37620.285707.380
38611.755694.779
39604.978684.418
40596.684670.781
41586.777657.581
42579.770647.792
43573.349639.541
44566.203628.201
45559.185617.996
46552.211606.569
47543.940596.199
48538.314582.657
49530.162572.405
50522.772561.322
51517.192551.264
52509.549541.199
53504.180529.429
54498.969518.179
55493.024506.771
56486.117492.955
57482.104484.799
58476.030476.566
59469.401467.539
60463.078455.709
61456.696443.927
62448.635435.342
63441.013427.337
64434.528417.527
65429.680409.905
66423.114402.129
67416.805394.880
68410.499385.446
69403.915375.778
70397.385368.834
71390.470359.360
72383.052351.790
73376.618342.929
74369.481335.031
75362.567326.297
76356.101318.516
77349.599310.058
78342.099302.267
79334.539294.825
80327.918285.102
81320.562275.993
82312.931267.354
83305.418257.580
84297.165249.421
85289.569242.368
86280.114232.899
87273.623223.171
88265.044215.364
89257.047206.025
90247.728195.678
91236.725186.056
92225.523174.737
93215.529162.720
94205.919148.145
95193.597137.731
96180.832125.769
97164.336108.342
98143.30493.323
99120.11675.752


About the exceedance probability product


  1. The forecast is a simulation from the Bayesian Joint Probability (BJP) Model. The simulation comprises 5000 members.
  2. The forecast skill of the BJP model is different for different forecast periods of the year. Please look at the Model Validation results to assess model skill for this forecast period.
  3. The historical reference is a probabilistic representation of the historical data.
  4. The forecast location name is displayed in the graph title. Site forecast locations are followed by the Australian Water Resources Council (AWRC) river station number in brackets e.g. (405219).
  5. The streamflow data used for new forecasts and for verification is from realtime data sources which are not rigorously quality controlled.
  6. The historical reference plot and the historical data plots are derived from the available historical record. The legend shows the year associated with the start month of the forecast period.
  7. The RMSEP skill scores have been defined as less than 10 very low skill, 10-20 low skill, 20-40 moderate skill, greater than 40 high skill.
  8. Further explanation of some technical terms is provided under the FAQ.


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