Seasonal Streamflow Forecasts

Exceedance probability for Unregulated inflow to Goulburn Weir


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Product list for Unregulated inflow to Goulburn Weir


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Exceedance probability for Unregulated inflow to Goulburn Weir(  )

Exceedance Probability Summary
Exceedance Prob. of
Streamflow (%)
Streamflow Forecast
(3 month total flow in GL)
Historical Reference
(3 month total flow in GL)
10240.690417.875
20195.491305.852
30169.360247.933
40148.577202.964
50130.951169.929
60116.310139.904
70102.182116.003
8086.45593.095
9067.84667.963

Exceedance Probability
Exceedance Prob. of
Streamflow (%)
Streamflow Forecast
(3 month total flow in GL)
Historical Reference
(3 month total flow in GL)
1380.485862.922
2329.527694.008
3309.376634.714
4293.558588.881
5279.091556.596
6268.181513.969
7258.959485.529
8251.226460.036
9246.498435.602
10240.690417.875
11234.586403.557
12228.551388.146
13223.831376.721
14218.091365.495
15213.705353.405
16210.344343.988
17207.392333.189
18202.142322.402
19198.818313.082
20195.491305.852
21192.392298.957
22189.548291.388
23186.850286.160
24184.482278.631
25181.474273.968
26179.362269.987
27176.545263.984
28174.278259.267
29171.579253.839
30169.360247.933
31167.431242.592
32164.760237.224
33162.587233.027
34160.724228.925
35158.912223.351
36156.872218.940
37154.673214.576
38152.817210.542
39150.967207.254
40148.577202.964
41146.649198.851
42144.912195.826
43143.358193.291
44141.037189.832
45139.169186.741
46137.765183.304
47135.897180.206
48134.373176.190
49132.513173.172
50130.951169.929
51129.263167.003
52127.686164.091
53126.130160.705
54125.061157.487
55123.634154.242
56121.722150.333
57120.500148.036
58119.110145.726
59117.555143.201
60116.310139.904
61115.264136.633
62113.912134.257
63112.525132.047
64111.232129.344
65109.732127.249
66108.406125.114
67106.806123.127
68105.251120.544
69103.465117.900
70102.182116.003
71100.533113.416
7299.066111.349
7397.511108.930
7495.785106.774
7594.532104.388
7693.073102.261
7791.28199.946
7889.74097.811
7988.19995.769
8086.45593.095
8184.88790.583
8283.26388.194
8381.44285.482
8479.42483.209
8577.59781.237
8675.81778.578
8773.45275.830
8871.40573.613
8969.65870.943
9067.84667.963
9165.56365.167
9263.12961.844
9360.45058.272
9457.77453.867
9554.36150.666
9651.07146.922
9747.00141.322
9841.88636.326
9935.46230.227


About the exceedance probability product


  1. The forecast is a simulation from the Bayesian Joint Probability (BJP) Model. The simulation comprises 5000 members.
  2. The forecast skill of the BJP model is different for different forecast periods of the year. Please look at the Model Validation results to assess model skill for this forecast period.
  3. The historical reference is a probabilistic representation of the historical data.
  4. The forecast location name is displayed in the graph title. Site forecast locations are followed by the Australian Water Resources Council (AWRC) river station number in brackets e.g. (405219).
  5. The streamflow data used for new forecasts and for verification is from realtime data sources which are not rigorously quality controlled.
  6. The historical reference plot and the historical data plots are derived from the available historical record. The legend shows the year associated with the start month of the forecast period.
  7. The RMSEP skill scores have been defined as less than 10 very low skill, 10-20 low skill, 20-40 moderate skill, greater than 40 high skill.
  8. Further explanation of some technical terms is provided under the FAQ.


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