Seasonal Streamflow Forecasts

Exceedance probability for Unregulated inflow to Goulburn Weir


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Product list for Unregulated inflow to Goulburn Weir


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Exceedance probability for Unregulated inflow to Goulburn Weir(  )

Exceedance Probability Summary
Exceedance Prob. of
Streamflow (%)
Streamflow Forecast
(3 month total flow in GL)
Historical Reference
(3 month total flow in GL)
10116.846172.735
2096.179130.920
3084.341109.072
4074.33491.852
5066.62278.982
6059.33067.062
7052.69557.373
8045.41447.870
9036.76137.120

Exceedance Probability
Exceedance Prob. of
Streamflow (%)
Streamflow Forecast
(3 month total flow in GL)
Historical Reference
(3 month total flow in GL)
1184.728347.108
2163.748278.043
3150.376254.830
4143.024237.169
5135.782224.854
6131.240208.724
7126.350198.030
8122.851188.479
9119.372179.349
10116.846172.735
11113.707167.397
12111.158161.653
13109.276157.395
14106.879153.210
15105.088148.701
16103.105145.186
17101.105141.153
1899.212137.119
1997.843133.630
2096.179130.920
2194.922128.333
2293.581125.489
2392.248123.523
2491.038120.687
2590.114118.929
2688.673117.426
2787.535115.157
2886.681113.371
2985.503111.314
3084.341109.072
3183.554107.041
3282.331104.997
3381.376103.395
3480.250101.828
3579.20199.695
3678.34998.003
3777.35796.327
3876.43094.775
3975.41393.508
4074.33491.852
4173.60090.261
4272.69989.089
4371.99488.106
4471.30886.762
4570.54885.559
4669.69584.219
4768.87183.010
4868.16181.439
4967.36980.256
5066.62278.982
5165.88877.831
5265.06876.683
5364.35875.346
5463.60274.072
5562.95072.785
5662.23571.230
5761.26270.315
5860.60469.393
5959.95668.383
6059.33067.062
6158.68365.747
6258.02464.791
6357.53863.899
6456.99962.806
6556.47561.957
6655.93461.091
6755.07060.283
6854.42659.230
6953.53658.150
7052.69557.373
7152.10356.312
7251.29755.462
7350.55154.464
7449.81053.573
7549.04452.585
7648.36751.702
7747.73850.738
7847.05949.847
7946.30948.992
8045.41447.870
8144.40246.813
8243.47345.804
8342.79044.655
8442.03643.688
8541.29942.847
8640.46941.709
8739.58140.529
8838.72339.572
8937.82838.417
9036.76137.120
9135.44335.898
9234.35334.437
9332.89832.856
9431.73330.891
9530.51429.451
9628.83227.753
9726.75525.184
9824.13822.859
9921.11919.970


About the exceedance probability product


  1. The forecast is a simulation from the Bayesian Joint Probability (BJP) Model. The simulation comprises 5000 members.
  2. The forecast skill of the BJP model is different for different forecast periods of the year. Please look at the Model Validation results to assess model skill for this forecast period.
  3. The historical reference is a probabilistic representation of the historical data.
  4. The forecast location name is displayed in the graph title. Site forecast locations are followed by the Australian Water Resources Council (AWRC) river station number in brackets e.g. (405219).
  5. The streamflow data used for new forecasts and for verification is from realtime data sources which are not rigorously quality controlled.
  6. The historical reference plot and the historical data plots are derived from the available historical record. The legend shows the year associated with the start month of the forecast period.
  7. The RMSEP skill scores have been defined as less than 10 very low skill, 10-20 low skill, 20-40 moderate skill, greater than 40 high skill.
  8. Further explanation of some technical terms is provided under the FAQ.


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