Seasonal Streamflow Forecasts

Exceedance probability for Unregulated inflow to Goulburn Weir


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Product list for Unregulated inflow to Goulburn Weir


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Exceedance probability for Unregulated inflow to Goulburn Weir(  )

Exceedance Probability Summary
Exceedance Prob. of
Streamflow (%)
Streamflow Forecast
(3 month total flow in GL)
Historical Reference
(3 month total flow in GL)
1091.646171.208
2075.150128.258
3065.306106.036
4057.65088.652
5051.23275.748
6045.51263.874
7040.31254.289
8034.66144.953
9027.23334.487

Exceedance Probability
Exceedance Prob. of
Streamflow (%)
Streamflow Forecast
(3 month total flow in GL)
Historical Reference
(3 month total flow in GL)
1156.239354.291
2135.089281.161
3123.182256.744
4116.894238.230
5110.108225.353
6104.613208.533
7100.207197.411
896.985187.500
994.032178.045
1091.646171.208
1189.429165.698
1287.788159.778
1385.590155.394
1483.822151.091
1582.273146.460
1680.473142.855
1779.005138.721
1877.741134.593
1976.425131.026
2075.150128.258
2174.170125.618
2273.009122.719
2371.878120.715
2470.894117.829
2569.597116.040
2668.759114.513
2767.872112.208
2867.081110.395
2966.331108.309
3065.306106.036
3164.333103.979
3263.384101.911
3362.785100.292
3461.81598.708
3561.08896.554
3660.38794.847
3759.67793.158
3859.13791.594
3958.34090.318
4057.65088.652
4157.04387.052
4256.32985.875
4355.60284.888
4454.94683.539
4554.46982.332
4653.75680.989
4753.17979.777
4852.52278.205
4951.88977.021
5051.23275.748
5150.71274.597
5250.13273.451
5349.37472.117
5448.94070.847
5548.45869.564
5647.84868.017
5747.21967.107
5846.75166.190
5946.09965.186
6045.51263.874
6145.03762.570
6244.49161.622
6343.96760.738
6443.45359.656
6542.78158.816
6642.40757.959
6741.86157.160
6841.24156.121
6940.78055.055
7040.31254.289
7139.72653.242
7239.19852.405
7338.70851.424
7438.05150.547
7537.40149.576
7636.88148.708
7736.21547.763
7835.69346.889
7935.10246.051
8034.66144.953
8134.10243.919
8233.35842.933
8332.56641.811
8432.06740.868
8531.33440.049
8630.31738.941
8729.55737.793
8828.90836.864
8928.19935.743
9027.23334.487
9126.40933.304
9225.46931.893
9324.43330.369
9423.25428.479
9522.09727.097
9620.88825.471
9719.37723.019
9817.54620.809
9914.81918.076


About the exceedance probability product


  1. The forecast is a simulation from the Bayesian Joint Probability (BJP) Model. The simulation comprises 5000 members.
  2. The forecast skill of the BJP model is different for different forecast periods of the year. Please look at the Model Validation results to assess model skill for this forecast period.
  3. The historical reference is a probabilistic representation of the historical data.
  4. The forecast location name is displayed in the graph title. Site forecast locations are followed by the Australian Water Resources Council (AWRC) river station number in brackets e.g. (405219).
  5. The streamflow data used for new forecasts and for verification is from realtime data sources which are not rigorously quality controlled.
  6. The historical reference plot and the historical data plots are derived from the available historical record. The legend shows the year associated with the start month of the forecast period.
  7. The RMSEP skill scores have been defined as less than 10 very low skill, 10-20 low skill, 20-40 moderate skill, greater than 40 high skill.
  8. Further explanation of some technical terms is provided under the FAQ.


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