Seasonal Streamflow Forecasts

Exceedance probability for Unregulated inflow to Goulburn Weir


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Product list for Unregulated inflow to Goulburn Weir


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Exceedance probability for Unregulated inflow to Goulburn Weir(  )

Exceedance Probability Summary
Exceedance Prob. of
Streamflow (%)
Streamflow Forecast
(3 month total flow in GL)
Historical Reference
(3 month total flow in GL)
10193.303271.138
20148.108195.435
30121.646157.522
40103.335128.585
5088.254107.585
6075.16688.679
7063.78773.752
8051.80059.550
9038.72044.096

Exceedance Probability
Exceedance Prob. of
Streamflow (%)
Streamflow Forecast
(3 month total flow in GL)
Historical Reference
(3 month total flow in GL)
1379.163618.271
2317.777475.747
3280.774429.197
4259.521394.288
5244.394370.220
6230.224339.059
7218.994318.635
8209.949300.564
9201.714283.443
10193.303271.138
11187.695261.268
12181.797250.712
13176.592242.931
14171.509235.320
15166.898227.161
16161.693220.832
17158.232213.603
18155.037206.412
19151.760200.223
20148.108195.435
21144.851190.882
22142.248185.896
23139.336182.459
24136.806177.522
25134.776174.471
26132.695171.870
27129.718167.954
28127.681164.882
29124.825161.354
30121.646157.522
31119.272154.063
32117.526150.593
33115.819147.884
34113.569145.240
35111.742141.652
36109.712138.818
37108.156136.018
38106.737133.433
39104.824131.328
40103.335128.585
41101.649125.959
42100.282124.029
4398.790122.414
4497.385120.212
4595.770118.246
4694.259116.062
4793.022114.095
4891.721111.549
4989.578109.637
5088.254107.585
5187.221105.735
5285.929103.895
5384.876101.759
5483.21499.730
5581.91297.686
5680.88195.227
5779.33993.783
5877.84792.332
5976.69090.747
6075.16688.679
6173.91986.630
6272.71785.143
6371.63183.760
6470.49082.071
6569.58980.762
6668.17879.430
6767.20378.190
6866.11876.580
6964.91374.933
7063.78773.752
7162.51272.143
7261.28670.858
7359.83969.356
7458.86568.018
7557.76466.538
7656.76065.220
7755.35563.786
7854.09762.465
7953.01061.202
8051.80059.550
8150.78857.999
8249.53656.526
8348.26454.854
8447.06553.454
8545.77752.241
8644.42150.606
8743.11348.919
8841.78647.558
8940.11945.921
9038.72044.096
9136.93242.386
9235.55540.356
9333.46138.177
9431.82935.495
9529.26633.548
9627.07731.276
9724.50027.886
9821.34924.870
9917.46521.202


About the exceedance probability product


  1. The forecast is a simulation from the Bayesian Joint Probability (BJP) Model. The simulation comprises 5000 members.
  2. The forecast skill of the BJP model is different for different forecast periods of the year. Please look at the Model Validation results to assess model skill for this forecast period.
  3. The historical reference is a probabilistic representation of the historical data.
  4. The forecast location name is displayed in the graph title. Site forecast locations are followed by the Australian Water Resources Council (AWRC) river station number in brackets e.g. (405219).
  5. The streamflow data used for new forecasts and for verification is from realtime data sources which are not rigorously quality controlled.
  6. The historical reference plot and the historical data plots are derived from the available historical record. The legend shows the year associated with the start month of the forecast period.
  7. The RMSEP skill scores have been defined as less than 10 very low skill, 10-20 low skill, 20-40 moderate skill, greater than 40 high skill.
  8. Further explanation of some technical terms is provided under the FAQ.


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