Seasonal Streamflow Forecasts

Exceedance probability for Unregulated inflow to Goulburn Weir


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Product list for Unregulated inflow to Goulburn Weir


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Exceedance probability for Unregulated inflow to Goulburn Weir(  )

Exceedance Probability Summary
Exceedance Prob. of
Streamflow (%)
Streamflow Forecast
(3 month total flow in GL)
Historical Reference
(3 month total flow in GL)
10691.5601120.639
20554.064833.391
30463.100668.825
40388.369535.335
50332.516435.864
60282.797346.073
70237.910276.220
80189.567211.692
90136.746144.987

Exceedance Probability
Exceedance Prob. of
Streamflow (%)
Streamflow Forecast
(3 month total flow in GL)
Historical Reference
(3 month total flow in GL)
11164.0051951.594
21010.2651678.366
3929.5251572.564
4867.1361486.321
5825.5501422.935
6793.1531335.533
7762.1721274.656
8737.2261218.204
9713.9071162.321
10691.5601120.639
11672.3771086.248
12657.1141048.491
13639.5891019.995
14623.941991.568
15613.238960.478
16601.552935.918
17590.484907.383
18578.460878.485
19566.818853.204
20554.064833.391
21542.014814.340
22532.874793.246
23524.839778.571
24516.114757.290
25504.985744.024
26494.909732.647
27486.017715.404
28478.733701.786
29473.280686.042
30463.100668.825
31456.568653.178
32448.633637.390
33441.233625.000
34432.175612.856
35424.543596.300
36418.506583.161
37410.383570.134
38403.032558.065
39395.056548.210
40388.369535.335
41382.173522.976
42376.217513.876
43371.229506.248
44364.912495.830
45358.994486.516
46353.866476.158
47347.647466.822
48342.087454.721
49338.457445.628
50332.516435.864
51326.453427.060
52321.398418.306
53316.857408.137
54311.902398.487
55307.442388.768
56302.594377.087
57296.768370.237
58292.563363.356
59288.045355.850
60282.797346.073
61277.896336.401
62273.118329.396
63269.600322.893
64264.866314.964
65261.123308.833
66256.715302.605
67252.629296.821
68246.879289.327
69242.835281.685
70237.910276.220
71233.667268.794
72228.677262.884
73223.779255.994
74218.389249.877
75213.619243.138
76208.980237.157
77203.837230.678
78199.352224.730
79194.037219.067
80189.567211.692
81184.392204.809
82178.917198.302
83173.411190.964
84168.670184.857
85162.758179.590
86157.479172.538
87152.298165.312
88146.833159.527
89141.874152.621
90136.746144.987
91129.341137.903
92123.122129.585
93116.267120.770
94108.691110.096
9599.972102.477
9691.00493.730
9783.06480.986
9873.21069.993
9953.17857.102


About the exceedance probability product


  1. The forecast is a simulation from the Bayesian Joint Probability (BJP) Model. The simulation comprises 5000 members.
  2. The forecast skill of the BJP model is different for different forecast periods of the year. Please look at the Model Validation results to assess model skill for this forecast period.
  3. The historical reference is a probabilistic representation of the historical data.
  4. The forecast location name is displayed in the graph title. Site forecast locations are followed by the Australian Water Resources Council (AWRC) river station number in brackets e.g. (405219).
  5. The streamflow data used for new forecasts and for verification is from realtime data sources which are not rigorously quality controlled.
  6. The historical reference plot and the historical data plots are derived from the available historical record. The legend shows the year associated with the start month of the forecast period.
  7. The RMSEP skill scores have been defined as less than 10 very low skill, 10-20 low skill, 20-40 moderate skill, greater than 40 high skill.
  8. Further explanation of some technical terms is provided under the FAQ.


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