Seasonal Streamflow Forecasts

Exceedance probability for Unregulated inflow to Goulburn Weir


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Product list for Unregulated inflow to Goulburn Weir


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Exceedance probability for Unregulated inflow to Goulburn Weir(  )

Exceedance Probability Summary
Exceedance Prob. of
Streamflow (%)
Streamflow Forecast
(3 month total flow in GL)
Historical Reference
(3 month total flow in GL)
10773.323994.955
20630.458759.442
30528.899621.024
40457.009505.984
50392.996418.224
60341.237337.230
70292.366272.891
80239.239212.287
90181.184148.263

Exceedance Probability
Exceedance Prob. of
Streamflow (%)
Streamflow Forecast
(3 month total flow in GL)
Historical Reference
(3 month total flow in GL)
11279.9761658.464
21107.7881441.609
31023.6081357.428
4967.8031288.677
5915.4441238.053
6870.7171168.088
7835.7661119.222
8810.3811073.790
9791.0341028.689
10773.323994.955
11758.004967.053
12737.656936.343
13717.630913.108
14704.053889.876
15688.214864.401
16678.422844.225
17664.571820.722
18653.714796.850
19642.577775.902
20630.458759.442
21618.851743.577
22606.844725.968
23595.798713.687
24586.171695.836
25576.897684.681
26568.232675.097
27560.187660.541
28550.415649.017
29538.989635.665
30528.899621.024
31521.363607.682
32515.055594.184
33508.032583.566
34499.031573.134
35491.758558.877
36485.178547.530
37478.085536.252
38469.707525.778
39462.168517.207
40457.009505.984
41451.181495.182
42443.668487.212
43435.837480.518
44429.401471.358
45421.537463.152
46415.733454.007
47410.938445.745
48404.795435.011
49399.174426.926
50392.996418.224
51387.703410.362
52382.770402.527
53377.481393.405
54373.515384.728
55368.867375.968
56363.105365.412
57357.851359.207
58353.453352.963
59347.044346.138
60341.237337.230
61337.330328.395
62331.990321.981
63327.106316.017
64320.669308.730
65315.418303.085
66310.687297.340
67305.961291.996
68301.989285.060
69297.145277.971
70292.366272.891
71286.968265.977
72283.029260.463
73278.176254.023
74272.954248.294
75267.245241.971
76261.869236.347
77256.545230.244
78250.828224.630
79244.892219.275
80239.239212.287
81234.366205.749
82229.051199.555
83224.784192.553
84219.102186.713
85213.216181.666
86206.742174.893
87201.074167.935
88195.230162.351
89188.008155.670
90181.184148.263
91174.618141.369
92166.139133.248
93159.447124.611
94149.356114.104
95141.245106.572
96130.35697.887
97117.36885.159
98102.50774.099
9984.08661.020


About the exceedance probability product


  1. The forecast is a simulation from the Bayesian Joint Probability (BJP) Model. The simulation comprises 5000 members.
  2. The forecast skill of the BJP model is different for different forecast periods of the year. Please look at the Model Validation results to assess model skill for this forecast period.
  3. The historical reference is a probabilistic representation of the historical data.
  4. The forecast location name is displayed in the graph title. Site forecast locations are followed by the Australian Water Resources Council (AWRC) river station number in brackets e.g. (405219).
  5. The streamflow data used for new forecasts and for verification is from realtime data sources which are not rigorously quality controlled.
  6. The historical reference plot and the historical data plots are derived from the available historical record. The legend shows the year associated with the start month of the forecast period.
  7. The RMSEP skill scores have been defined as less than 10 very low skill, 10-20 low skill, 20-40 moderate skill, greater than 40 high skill.
  8. Further explanation of some technical terms is provided under the FAQ.


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