Seasonal Streamflow Forecasts

Exceedance probability for Unregulated inflow to Goulburn Weir


Return to catchment list
Product list for Unregulated inflow to Goulburn Weir


Download forecast data
Exceedance probability for Unregulated inflow to Goulburn Weir(  )

Exceedance Probability Summary
Exceedance Prob. of
Streamflow (%)
Streamflow Forecast
(3 month total flow in GL)
Historical Reference
(3 month total flow in GL)
10268.846417.875
20221.111305.852
30192.188247.933
40169.308202.964
50149.144169.929
60132.224139.904
70116.519116.003
8099.23293.095
9077.55167.963

Exceedance Probability
Exceedance Prob. of
Streamflow (%)
Streamflow Forecast
(3 month total flow in GL)
Historical Reference
(3 month total flow in GL)
1428.647862.922
2372.885694.008
3347.575634.714
4326.105588.881
5312.026556.596
6299.838513.969
7288.882485.529
8281.734460.036
9276.093435.602
10268.846417.875
11262.966403.557
12258.294388.146
13253.151376.721
14247.185365.495
15241.457353.405
16236.390343.988
17232.324333.189
18227.949322.402
19224.730313.082
20221.111305.852
21217.657298.957
22214.279291.388
23211.265286.160
24207.881278.631
25205.159273.968
26202.604269.987
27199.959263.984
28197.508259.267
29194.821253.839
30192.188247.933
31190.234242.592
32187.785237.224
33185.360233.027
34183.164228.925
35180.066223.351
36177.772218.940
37175.089214.576
38173.320210.542
39171.226207.254
40169.308202.964
41167.177198.851
42164.471195.826
43162.372193.291
44160.147189.832
45158.391186.741
46156.398183.304
47154.589180.206
48152.434176.190
49151.064173.172
50149.144169.929
51147.542167.003
52145.872164.091
53144.180160.705
54142.691157.487
55140.801154.242
56138.814150.333
57137.247148.036
58135.799145.726
59133.822143.201
60132.224139.904
61130.791136.633
62129.484134.257
63127.986132.047
64126.382129.344
65124.825127.249
66123.402125.114
67121.955123.127
68120.074120.544
69117.877117.900
70116.519116.003
71115.007113.416
72113.339111.349
73111.569108.930
74109.904106.774
75108.094104.388
76106.565102.261
77104.53399.946
78102.51997.811
79100.61295.769
8099.23293.095
8197.18390.583
8294.98688.194
8393.08885.482
8491.02983.209
8589.04481.237
8687.23978.578
8784.22875.830
8881.87473.613
8980.12670.943
9077.55167.963
9175.46865.167
9272.59061.844
9369.75958.272
9467.09253.867
9563.49450.666
9659.80646.922
9754.01441.322
9848.77636.326
9942.30030.227


About the exceedance probability product


  1. The forecast is a simulation from the Bayesian Joint Probability (BJP) Model. The simulation comprises 5000 members.
  2. The forecast skill of the BJP model is different for different forecast periods of the year. Please look at the Model Validation results to assess model skill for this forecast period.
  3. The historical reference is a probabilistic representation of the historical data.
  4. The forecast location name is displayed in the graph title. Site forecast locations are followed by the Australian Water Resources Council (AWRC) river station number in brackets e.g. (405219).
  5. The streamflow data used for new forecasts and for verification is from realtime data sources which are not rigorously quality controlled.
  6. The historical reference plot and the historical data plots are derived from the available historical record. The legend shows the year associated with the start month of the forecast period.
  7. The RMSEP skill scores have been defined as less than 10 very low skill, 10-20 low skill, 20-40 moderate skill, greater than 40 high skill.
  8. Further explanation of some technical terms is provided under the FAQ.


Creative Commons By Attribution logo
Unless otherwise noted, all material on this page is licensed under the Creative Commons Attribution Australia Licence