Seasonal Streamflow Forecasts

Exceedance probability for Unregulated inflow to Goulburn Weir


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Product list for Unregulated inflow to Goulburn Weir


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Exceedance probability for Unregulated inflow to Goulburn Weir(  )

Exceedance Probability Summary
Exceedance Prob. of
Streamflow (%)
Streamflow Forecast
(3 month total flow in GL)
Historical Reference
(3 month total flow in GL)
10140.369255.545
20115.911190.316
30101.748156.544
4089.923130.109
5080.729110.478
6071.89492.406
7063.53977.809
8055.00063.586
9044.00747.630

Exceedance Probability
Exceedance Prob. of
Streamflow (%)
Streamflow Forecast
(3 month total flow in GL)
Historical Reference
(3 month total flow in GL)
1227.109533.180
2199.184422.343
3183.341385.321
4172.810357.243
5164.599337.711
6157.222312.193
7152.241295.316
8148.361280.275
9143.647265.923
10140.369255.545
11136.822247.180
12134.099238.191
13131.379231.535
14128.220225.000
15125.468217.966
16123.247212.490
17121.456206.211
18119.358199.940
19117.568194.521
20115.911190.316
21114.506186.305
22113.194181.899
23111.858178.854
24110.213174.468
25108.965171.750
26107.399169.428
27106.013165.925
28104.493163.170
29103.077159.998
30101.748156.544
31100.544153.417
3299.448150.272
3398.196147.810
3496.830145.402
3595.595142.127
3694.669139.532
3793.196136.962
3892.122134.584
3990.992132.643
4089.923130.109
4188.808127.676
4287.854125.886
4386.888124.384
4485.741122.332
4584.686120.496
4683.984118.453
4783.232116.609
4882.300114.216
4981.470112.415
5080.729110.478
5179.945108.728
5279.130106.984
5378.023104.953
5477.028103.020
5576.201101.068
5675.27598.713
5774.28997.327
5873.45595.931
5972.56794.403
6071.89492.406
6171.03790.421
6270.41088.976
6369.54587.631
6468.58885.984
6567.75584.704
6666.70783.399
6765.95282.183
6865.17680.600
6964.45378.976
7063.53977.809
7162.76576.215
7261.72974.940
7360.81073.445
7459.91572.110
7559.09170.630
7658.25869.308
7757.48967.867
7856.65766.536
7956.04665.260
8055.00063.586
8154.07862.009
8253.08260.507
8352.03358.796
8451.09657.360
8549.99756.110
8648.77454.422
8747.62052.672
8846.52151.255
8945.56749.545
9044.00747.630
9142.77145.826
9241.31743.673
9339.62041.348
9437.85238.464
9536.15936.354
9634.29133.873
9731.71330.130
9829.25426.754
9924.01622.579


About the exceedance probability product


  1. The forecast is a simulation from the Bayesian Joint Probability (BJP) Model. The simulation comprises 5000 members.
  2. The forecast skill of the BJP model is different for different forecast periods of the year. Please look at the Model Validation results to assess model skill for this forecast period.
  3. The historical reference is a probabilistic representation of the historical data.
  4. The forecast location name is displayed in the graph title. Site forecast locations are followed by the Australian Water Resources Council (AWRC) river station number in brackets e.g. (405219).
  5. The streamflow data used for new forecasts and for verification is from realtime data sources which are not rigorously quality controlled.
  6. The historical reference plot and the historical data plots are derived from the available historical record. The legend shows the year associated with the start month of the forecast period.
  7. The RMSEP skill scores have been defined as less than 10 very low skill, 10-20 low skill, 20-40 moderate skill, greater than 40 high skill.
  8. Further explanation of some technical terms is provided under the FAQ.


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