Seasonal Streamflow Forecasts

Exceedance probability for Unregulated inflow to Goulburn Weir


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Product list for Unregulated inflow to Goulburn Weir



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Exceedance probability for Unregulated inflow to Goulburn Weir ( Mar 2014 )

Exceedance Probability Summary
Exceedance Prob. of
Streamflow (%)
Streamflow Forecast
(3 month total flow in GL)
Historical Reference
(3 month total flow in GL)
10223.106271.138
20171.812195.435
30140.713157.522
40119.342128.585
50102.660107.585
6087.72788.679
7074.43673.752
8060.38059.550
9045.30044.096

Exceedance Probability
Exceedance Prob. of
Streamflow (%)
Streamflow Forecast
(3 month total flow in GL)
Historical Reference
(3 month total flow in GL)
1436.650618.271
2362.485475.747
3324.966429.197
4296.016394.288
5281.662370.220
6265.371339.059
7251.667318.635
8240.292300.564
9232.378283.443
10223.106271.138
11216.545261.268
12210.526250.712
13204.385242.931
14198.548235.320
15191.656227.161
16186.967220.832
17183.028213.603
18178.666206.412
19175.688200.223
20171.812195.435
21167.790190.882
22164.418185.896
23161.135182.459
24158.431177.522
25155.674174.471
26153.093171.870
27150.266167.954
28146.813164.882
29144.157161.354
30140.713157.522
31138.516154.063
32136.181150.593
33133.897147.884
34131.860145.240
35129.876141.652
36127.511138.818
37125.562136.018
38123.082133.433
39121.119131.328
40119.342128.585
41117.529125.959
42115.964124.029
43114.716122.414
44113.086120.212
45111.204118.246
46109.572116.062
47107.832114.095
48106.072111.549
49104.400109.637
50102.660107.585
51100.850105.735
5299.799103.895
5398.573101.759
5497.02499.730
5595.58197.686
5693.75895.227
5792.19193.783
5890.54392.332
5989.12990.747
6087.72788.679
6186.40586.630
6284.47085.143
6383.40783.760
6481.95882.071
6580.64980.762
6679.57079.430
6778.27278.190
6877.06976.580
6975.62174.933
7074.43673.752
7172.64572.143
7271.40170.858
7369.97169.356
7468.60668.018
7567.28066.538
7666.12565.220
7764.92663.786
7863.34062.465
7961.77661.202
8060.38059.550
8159.17957.999
8257.66556.526
8356.56254.854
8454.86553.454
8553.30752.241
8651.90350.606
8750.32748.919
8848.90147.558
8947.23245.921
9045.30044.096
9143.59242.386
9241.59340.356
9339.54338.177
9437.34335.495
9534.34833.548
9632.00431.276
9729.00127.886
9825.60424.870
9920.70321.202


About the exceedance probability product


  1. The forecast is a simulation from the Bayesian Joint Probability (BJP) Model. The simulation comprises 5000 members.
  2. The forecast skill of the BJP model is different for different forecast periods of the year. Please look at the Model Validation results to assess model skill for this forecast period.
  3. The historical reference is a probabilistic representation of the historical data.
  4. The forecast location name is displayed in the graph title. Site forecast locations are followed by the Australian Water Resources Council (AWRC) river station number in brackets e.g. (405219).
  5. The streamflow data used for new forecasts and for verification is from realtime data sources which are not rigorously quality controlled.
  6. The historical reference plot and the historical data plots are derived from the available historical record. The legend shows the year associated with the start month of the forecast period.
  7. The RMSEP skill scores have been defined as less than 10 very low skill, 10-20 low skill, 20-40 moderate skill, greater than 40 high skill.
  8. Further explanation of some technical terms is provided under the FAQ.


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