Seasonal Streamflow Forecasts

Exceedance probability for Unregulated inflow to Goulburn Weir


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Product list for Unregulated inflow to Goulburn Weir



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Exceedance probability for Unregulated inflow to Goulburn Weir ( Apr 2014 )

Exceedance Probability Summary
Exceedance Prob. of
Streamflow (%)
Historical Reference
(3 month total flow in GL)
10476.058
20327.866
30256.310
40203.404
50165.963
60133.052
70107.958
8084.594
9060.058

Exceedance Probability
Exceedance Prob. of
Streamflow (%)
Historical Reference
(3 month total flow in GL)
11213.474
2902.822
3802.721
4729.388
5677.534
6614.002
7572.311
8535.280
9500.705
10476.058
11456.432
12435.647
13420.261
14405.125
15389.144
16376.945
17362.773
18348.797
19336.951
20327.866
21319.212
22309.406
23303.220
24293.793
25288.129
26283.261
27275.737
28269.890
29263.519
30256.310
31249.976
32243.401
33238.421
34233.784
35227.056
36221.997
37216.853
38212.224
39208.358
40203.404
41198.647
42195.230
43192.274
44188.371
45184.883
46180.918
47177.525
48173.005
49169.559
50165.963
51162.719
52159.558
53155.704
54152.290
55148.536
56144.433
57141.933
58139.386
59136.709
60133.052
61129.634
62127.126
63124.752
64121.949
65119.734
66117.484
67115.396
68112.690
69109.931
70107.958
71105.276
72103.142
73100.652
7498.440
7596.003
7693.837
7791.489
7889.332
7987.275
8084.594
8182.087
8279.713
8377.031
8474.794
8572.861
8670.267
8767.602
8865.462
8962.900
9060.058
9157.410
9254.286
9350.957
9446.896
9543.975
9640.597
9735.619
9831.262
9926.062


About the exceedance probability product


  1. The forecast is a simulation from the Bayesian Joint Probability (BJP) Model. The simulation comprises 5000 members.
  2. The forecast skill of the BJP model is different for different forecast periods of the year. Please look at the Model Validation results to assess model skill for this forecast period.
  3. The historical reference is a probabilistic representation of the historical data.
  4. The forecast location name is displayed in the graph title. Site forecast locations are followed by the Australian Water Resources Council (AWRC) river station number in brackets e.g. (405219).
  5. The streamflow data used for new forecasts and for verification is from realtime data sources which are not rigorously quality controlled.
  6. The historical reference plot and the historical data plots are derived from the available historical record. The legend shows the year associated with the start month of the forecast period.
  7. The RMSEP skill scores have been defined as less than 10 very low skill, 10-20 low skill, 20-40 moderate skill, greater than 40 high skill.
  8. Further explanation of some technical terms is provided under the FAQ.


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