Seasonal Streamflow Forecasts

Exceedance probability for Unregulated inflow to Goulburn Weir


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Product list for Unregulated inflow to Goulburn Weir



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Exceedance probability for Unregulated inflow to Goulburn Weir ( Jan 2012 )

Exceedance Probability Summary
Exceedance Prob. of
Streamflow (%)
Streamflow Forecast
(3 month total flow in GL)
Historical Reference
(3 month total flow in GL)
10194.718172.735
20160.549130.920
30141.420109.072
40125.95291.852
50113.19578.982
60101.41467.062
7090.04257.373
8078.39847.870
9063.75637.120

Exceedance Probability
Exceedance Prob. of
Streamflow (%)
Streamflow Forecast
(3 month total flow in GL)
Historical Reference
(3 month total flow in GL)
1301.916347.108
2269.429278.043
3247.849254.830
4234.433237.169
5223.575224.854
6216.294208.724
7210.054198.030
8202.382188.479
9198.739179.349
10194.718172.735
11189.130167.397
12184.808161.653
13181.094157.395
14177.936153.210
15174.831148.701
16171.364145.186
17168.811141.153
18165.927137.119
19163.429133.630
20160.549130.920
21158.278128.333
22156.304125.489
23154.238123.523
24152.237120.687
25150.489118.929
26148.766117.426
27146.544115.157
28144.655113.371
29142.924111.314
30141.420109.072
31139.779107.041
32137.929104.997
33136.559103.395
34135.270101.828
35133.74399.695
36132.03598.003
37130.67796.327
38129.12094.775
39127.37393.508
40125.95291.852
41124.16490.261
42122.81289.089
43121.54988.106
44120.18586.762
45118.88485.559
46117.56684.219
47116.59283.010
48115.35381.439
49114.18980.256
50113.19578.982
51112.07177.831
52110.78076.683
53109.29675.346
54108.09874.072
55107.23972.785
56105.92171.230
57104.76570.315
58103.61069.393
59102.42768.383
60101.41467.062
61100.47665.747
6299.42464.791
6398.31363.899
6497.29862.806
6596.39561.957
6695.00161.091
6793.72760.283
6892.41259.230
6991.17258.150
7090.04257.373
7188.85856.312
7288.00155.462
7386.78454.464
7485.70353.573
7584.49452.585
7683.27751.702
7782.21250.738
7880.79649.847
7979.80948.992
8078.39847.870
8177.11346.813
8275.87945.804
8374.33744.655
8473.03843.688
8572.05442.847
8670.64041.709
8768.98140.529
8867.34839.572
8965.81538.417
9063.75637.120
9161.69835.898
9259.94934.437
9358.04032.856
9456.04030.891
9553.75829.451
9651.17827.753
9747.14725.184
9842.77322.859
9937.87019.970


About the exceedance probability product


  1. The forecast is a simulation from the Bayesian Joint Probability (BJP) Model. The simulation comprises 5000 members.
  2. The forecast skill of the BJP model is different for different forecast periods of the year. Please look at the Model Validation results to assess model skill for this forecast period.
  3. The historical reference is a probabilistic representation of the historical data.
  4. The forecast location name is displayed in the graph title. Site forecast locations are followed by the Australian Water Resources Council (AWRC) river station number in brackets e.g. (405219).
  5. The streamflow data used for new forecasts and for verification is from realtime data sources which are not rigorously quality controlled.
  6. The historical reference plot and the historical data plots are derived from the available historical record. The legend shows the year associated with the start month of the forecast period.
  7. The RMSEP skill scores have been defined as less than 10 very low skill, 10-20 low skill, 20-40 moderate skill, greater than 40 high skill.
  8. Further explanation of some technical terms is provided under the FAQ.


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