Seasonal Streamflow Forecasts

Probability distribution for Unregulated inflow to Goulburn Weir


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Product list for Unregulated inflow to Goulburn Weir


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Probability distribution for Unregulated inflow to Goulburn Weir(  )

Basic Statistics
Streamflow Forecast
(3 month total flow in GL)
Historical Reference
(3 month total flow in GL)
25% Quartile248.229241.981
Median368.684418.224
Mean421.876506.555
75% Quartile548.659684.675
Interquartile Range300.430442.694

Exceedance Probability
Exceedance Prob. of
Streamflow (%)
Streamflow Forecast
(3 month total flow in GL)
Historical Reference
(3 month total flow in GL)
11203.8821658.464
21068.6021441.609
3980.3701357.428
4923.8891288.677
5880.3831238.053
6845.5821168.088
7810.5251119.222
8781.8061073.790
9759.4661028.689
10737.463994.955
11716.327967.053
12701.201936.343
13686.946913.108
14673.866889.876
15660.637864.401
16647.240844.225
17630.889820.722
18617.369796.850
19604.412775.902
20594.419759.442
21583.073743.577
22574.022725.968
23566.284713.687
24558.220695.836
25548.801684.681
26539.261675.097
27529.678660.541
28520.167649.017
29510.895635.665
30502.760621.024
31494.749607.682
32487.245594.184
33479.041583.566
34470.991573.134
35463.216558.877
36454.144547.530
37447.631536.252
38440.208525.778
39434.360517.207
40428.556505.984
41420.892495.182
42415.772487.212
43410.896480.518
44404.804471.358
45398.465463.152
46392.950454.007
47387.500445.745
48381.431435.011
49374.923426.926
50368.684418.224
51363.173410.362
52358.603402.527
53353.819393.405
54349.093384.728
55344.079375.968
56338.590365.412
57334.209359.207
58329.190352.963
59324.238346.138
60318.596337.230
61313.188328.395
62309.194321.981
63303.896316.017
64299.053308.730
65294.266303.085
66289.611297.340
67284.679291.996
68280.047285.060
69275.196277.971
70270.168272.891
71265.962265.977
72261.972260.463
73257.679254.023
74252.766248.294
75248.225241.971
76243.170236.347
77237.358230.244
78231.978224.630
79227.218219.275
80221.709212.287
81216.468205.749
82211.847199.555
83207.204192.553
84203.109186.713
85197.748181.666
86191.558174.893
87184.514167.935
88179.195162.351
89172.741155.670
90166.667148.263
91160.392141.369
92153.801133.248
93144.465124.611
94136.686114.104
95128.693106.572
96116.16497.887
97106.83285.159
9893.43374.099
9974.06761.020


About the probability distribution product


  1. The forecast is a simulation from the Bayesian Joint Probability (BJP) Model. The simulation comprises 5000 members.
  2. The forecast skill of the BJP model is different for different forecast periods of the year. Please look at the Model Validation results to assess model skill for this forecast period.
  3. The historical reference is a probabilistic representation of the historical data.
  4. The forecast location name is displayed in the graph title. Site forecast locations are followed by the Australian Water Resources Council (AWRC) river station number in brackets e.g. (405219).
  5. The streamflow data used for new forecasts and for verification is from realtime data sources which are not rigorously quality controlled.
  6. The historical reference plot and the historical data plots are derived from the available historical record. The legend shows the year associated with the start month of the forecast period.
  7. The RMSEP skill scores have been defined as less than 10 very low skill, 10-20 low skill, 20-40 moderate skill, greater than 40 high skill.
  8. The 25% quartile, also defined as the first quartile cuts off the lowest 25% of data. The 75% quartile, also defined as the third quartile cuts off the lowest 75%. The interquartile range, also called the middle fifty, is a measure of statistical dispersion, being equal to the difference between the third and first quartiles.
  9. Further explanation of some technical terms is provided under the FAQ.


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