Seasonal Streamflow Forecasts

Probability distribution for Unregulated inflow to Goulburn Weir


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Product list for Unregulated inflow to Goulburn Weir


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Probability distribution for Unregulated inflow to Goulburn Weir(  )

Basic Statistics
Streamflow Forecast
(3 month total flow in GL)
Historical Reference
(3 month total flow in GL)
25% Quartile137.136164.649
Median190.639280.064
Mean209.711350.286
75% Quartile263.953463.362
Interquartile Range126.816298.714

Exceedance Probability
Exceedance Prob. of
Streamflow (%)
Streamflow Forecast
(3 month total flow in GL)
Historical Reference
(3 month total flow in GL)
1541.2601252.212
2475.2241064.863
3442.901993.309
4422.082935.493
5405.268893.325
6388.080835.675
7370.134795.883
8355.878759.266
9347.797723.300
10339.839696.660
11333.559674.803
12327.806650.936
13320.165633.013
14313.797615.213
15308.405595.832
16302.826580.588
17298.383562.947
18292.852545.160
19288.606529.662
20284.760517.556
21280.771505.948
22275.803493.132
23272.639484.237
24268.746471.370
25263.988463.367
26260.790456.513
27256.919446.145
28252.898437.972
29248.828428.538
30245.359418.240
31242.311408.897
32238.308399.484
33235.336392.107
34232.609384.883
35229.459375.046
36226.325367.247
37222.877359.521
38219.783352.369
39216.860346.532
40213.931338.909
41211.227331.595
42209.172326.212
43205.741321.700
44203.020315.538
45200.965310.030
46198.656303.904
47196.531298.382
48194.761291.224
49192.855285.843
50190.639280.064
51188.230274.850
52185.900269.664
53184.019263.636
54182.289257.911
55179.847252.141
56176.926245.200
57175.064241.125
58173.004237.028
59171.116232.555
60168.630226.723
61166.268220.945
62164.270216.754
63162.729212.860
64160.587208.106
65158.246204.424
66155.943200.680
67153.604197.198
68152.054192.681
69149.803188.065
70148.080184.759
71145.445180.260
72143.864176.673
73141.106172.483
74139.187168.756
75137.105164.642
76134.850160.983
77132.300157.011
78130.023153.357
79127.666149.869
80125.437145.317
81123.141141.055
82120.623137.016
83118.476132.445
84116.229128.630
85113.592125.330
86111.294120.897
87108.415116.338
88106.218112.674
89102.681108.284
9099.920103.410
9196.70398.863
9293.38593.496
9389.89387.770
9485.79480.780
9581.28975.750
9676.43669.927
9770.72761.343
9863.26353.825
9951.66644.851


About the probability distribution product


  1. The forecast is a simulation from the Bayesian Joint Probability (BJP) Model. The simulation comprises 5000 members.
  2. The forecast skill of the BJP model is different for different forecast periods of the year. Please look at the Model Validation results to assess model skill for this forecast period.
  3. The historical reference is a probabilistic representation of the historical data.
  4. The forecast location name is displayed in the graph title. Site forecast locations are followed by the Australian Water Resources Council (AWRC) river station number in brackets e.g. (405219).
  5. The streamflow data used for new forecasts and for verification is from realtime data sources which are not rigorously quality controlled.
  6. The historical reference plot and the historical data plots are derived from the available historical record. The legend shows the year associated with the start month of the forecast period.
  7. The RMSEP skill scores have been defined as less than 10 very low skill, 10-20 low skill, 20-40 moderate skill, greater than 40 high skill.
  8. The 25% quartile, also defined as the first quartile cuts off the lowest 25% of data. The 75% quartile, also defined as the third quartile cuts off the lowest 75%. The interquartile range, also called the middle fifty, is a measure of statistical dispersion, being equal to the difference between the third and first quartiles.
  9. Further explanation of some technical terms is provided under the FAQ.


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