Seasonal Streamflow Forecasts

Probability distribution for Unregulated inflow to Goulburn Weir


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Product list for Unregulated inflow to Goulburn Weir


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Probability distribution for Unregulated inflow to Goulburn Weir(  )

Basic Statistics
Streamflow Forecast
(3 month total flow in GL)
Historical Reference
(3 month total flow in GL)
25% Quartile156.443154.508
Median248.882277.381
Mean294.394386.971
75% Quartile382.841494.638
Interquartile Range226.397340.131

Exceedance Probability
Exceedance Prob. of
Streamflow (%)
Streamflow Forecast
(3 month total flow in GL)
Historical Reference
(3 month total flow in GL)
1958.8421803.429
2829.0921442.300
3771.1941311.070
4710.6341208.236
5671.9571135.175
6637.5531038.090
7613.716973.041
8586.470914.636
9565.598858.646
10547.943818.065
11528.932785.335
12513.272750.180
13501.167724.181
14490.301698.696
15477.836671.330
16465.094650.083
17454.800625.798
18446.975601.638
19438.747580.851
20428.372564.782
21419.597549.513
22408.940532.812
23399.616521.315
24391.051504.821
25382.858494.643
26376.483485.977
27367.262472.951
28361.501462.753
29354.679451.061
30348.969438.393
31342.329426.983
32336.272415.568
33329.606406.678
34323.351398.019
35318.220386.302
36312.686377.073
37308.038367.983
38303.675359.613
39298.880352.814
40293.365343.979
41289.062335.548
42285.122329.371
43280.188324.211
44275.624317.193
45270.489310.945
46265.089304.025
47260.937297.814
48256.516289.798
49252.624283.799
50248.882277.381
51244.366271.614
52239.817265.897
53236.392259.280
54232.539253.021
55228.905246.738
56224.600239.212
57221.163234.812
58217.026230.400
59213.065225.598
60209.289219.359
61205.750213.203
62202.239208.753
63199.119204.630
64195.241199.611
65191.808195.736
66187.768191.805
67184.181188.160
68180.541183.442
69177.648178.639
70172.924175.207
71170.272170.550
72167.028166.848
73163.961162.536
74160.571158.711
75156.434154.501
76153.174150.767
77149.771146.724
78145.871143.016
79140.991139.486
80136.682134.892
81134.028130.606
82129.059126.555
83124.920121.988
84121.447118.187
85118.945114.910
86115.220110.521
87110.798106.023
88106.475102.420
89102.28098.119
9098.07993.361
9193.95288.942
9289.42283.748
9384.96178.237
9479.18671.551
9572.68866.769
9666.22761.266
9757.66853.222
9849.42746.250
9939.51438.026


About the probability distribution product


  1. The forecast is a simulation from the Bayesian Joint Probability (BJP) Model. The simulation comprises 5000 members.
  2. The forecast skill of the BJP model is different for different forecast periods of the year. Please look at the Model Validation results to assess model skill for this forecast period.
  3. The historical reference is a probabilistic representation of the historical data.
  4. The forecast location name is displayed in the graph title. Site forecast locations are followed by the Australian Water Resources Council (AWRC) river station number in brackets e.g. (405219).
  5. The streamflow data used for new forecasts and for verification is from realtime data sources which are not rigorously quality controlled.
  6. The historical reference plot and the historical data plots are derived from the available historical record. The legend shows the year associated with the start month of the forecast period.
  7. The RMSEP skill scores have been defined as less than 10 very low skill, 10-20 low skill, 20-40 moderate skill, greater than 40 high skill.
  8. The 25% quartile, also defined as the first quartile cuts off the lowest 25% of data. The 75% quartile, also defined as the third quartile cuts off the lowest 75%. The interquartile range, also called the middle fifty, is a measure of statistical dispersion, being equal to the difference between the third and first quartiles.
  9. Further explanation of some technical terms is provided under the FAQ.


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