Seasonal Streamflow Forecasts

Probability distribution for Unregulated inflow to Goulburn Weir


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Product list for Unregulated inflow to Goulburn Weir


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Probability distribution for Unregulated inflow to Goulburn Weir(  )

Basic Statistics
Streamflow Forecast
(3 month total flow in GL)
Historical Reference
(3 month total flow in GL)
25% Quartile245.225326.108
Median363.284566.901
Mean408.140654.165
75% Quartile526.479897.492
Interquartile Range281.255571.384

Exceedance Probability
Exceedance Prob. of
Streamflow (%)
Streamflow Forecast
(3 month total flow in GL)
Historical Reference
(3 month total flow in GL)
11133.6361929.661
2999.1511709.555
3934.4571623.409
4880.0011552.650
5838.2141500.267
6807.0781427.407
7769.8531376.147
8750.5851328.171
9726.8601280.201
10708.1551244.070
11688.6801214.010
12669.2871180.722
13652.9221155.387
14639.7741129.917
15629.0731101.818
16618.0121079.432
17606.6621053.196
18596.1411026.366
19583.6851002.663
20571.155983.927
21560.861965.774
22555.129945.510
23546.553931.303
24537.486910.542
25526.519897.499
26517.203886.249
27509.267869.083
28502.564855.424
29495.569839.519
30489.537821.980
31479.841805.902
32474.270789.545
33466.760776.609
34460.178763.843
35452.348746.299
36446.273732.257
37439.286718.227
38433.245705.134
39425.403694.371
40417.369680.214
41412.947666.517
42407.030656.367
43400.814647.813
44395.407636.063
45388.806625.495
46383.879613.667
47377.910602.939
48373.465588.938
49368.696578.345
50363.284566.901
51357.791556.520
52352.326546.139
53347.970534.007
54343.624522.418
55338.071510.675
56333.307496.464
57327.495488.080
58322.690479.622
59318.338470.353
60314.412458.215
61309.145446.135
62305.298437.340
63300.807429.143
64296.405419.104
65290.936411.309
66286.868403.361
67283.377395.956
68277.932386.325
69273.905376.461
70268.865369.381
71264.426359.728
72258.532352.019
73254.482343.002
74249.556334.970
75245.218326.094
76240.736318.191
77235.130309.607
78230.503301.705
79225.002294.160
80221.135284.311
81214.614275.092
82209.589266.355
83204.259256.477
84198.785248.237
85194.208241.119
86187.810231.570
87182.955221.768
88177.702213.907
89170.635204.511
90164.235194.111
91155.816184.447
92150.261173.091
93140.556161.048
94131.660146.460
95125.033136.051
96112.181124.107
97101.442106.735
9884.25191.793
9967.82474.347


About the probability distribution product


  1. The forecast is a simulation from the Bayesian Joint Probability (BJP) Model. The simulation comprises 5000 members.
  2. The forecast skill of the BJP model is different for different forecast periods of the year. Please look at the Model Validation results to assess model skill for this forecast period.
  3. The historical reference is a probabilistic representation of the historical data.
  4. The forecast location name is displayed in the graph title. Site forecast locations are followed by the Australian Water Resources Council (AWRC) river station number in brackets e.g. (405219).
  5. The streamflow data used for new forecasts and for verification is from realtime data sources which are not rigorously quality controlled.
  6. The historical reference plot and the historical data plots are derived from the available historical record. The legend shows the year associated with the start month of the forecast period.
  7. The RMSEP skill scores have been defined as less than 10 very low skill, 10-20 low skill, 20-40 moderate skill, greater than 40 high skill.
  8. The 25% quartile, also defined as the first quartile cuts off the lowest 25% of data. The 75% quartile, also defined as the third quartile cuts off the lowest 75%. The interquartile range, also called the middle fifty, is a measure of statistical dispersion, being equal to the difference between the third and first quartiles.
  9. Further explanation of some technical terms is provided under the FAQ.


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