Seasonal Streamflow Forecasts

Probability distribution for Unregulated inflow to Goulburn Weir


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Product list for Unregulated inflow to Goulburn Weir


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Probability distribution for Unregulated inflow to Goulburn Weir(  )

Basic Statistics
Streamflow Forecast
(3 month total flow in GL)
Historical Reference
(3 month total flow in GL)
25% Quartile189.557164.649
Median258.137280.064
Mean282.234350.286
75% Quartile351.731463.362
Interquartile Range162.174298.714

Exceedance Probability
Exceedance Prob. of
Streamflow (%)
Streamflow Forecast
(3 month total flow in GL)
Historical Reference
(3 month total flow in GL)
1704.7051252.212
2618.3951064.863
3576.103993.309
4551.854935.493
5526.441893.325
6503.554835.675
7487.980795.883
8471.398759.266
9460.274723.300
10451.122696.660
11443.877674.803
12435.678650.936
13425.891633.013
14418.466615.213
15409.966595.832
16403.070580.588
17396.591562.947
18390.750545.160
19384.520529.662
20378.682517.556
21372.523505.948
22367.296493.132
23362.131484.237
24357.126471.370
25351.865463.367
26348.001456.513
27344.257446.145
28339.055437.972
29334.302428.538
30329.811418.240
31324.940408.897
32320.729399.484
33315.783392.107
34311.270384.883
35308.022375.046
36304.330367.247
37300.466359.521
38297.355352.369
39293.603346.532
40289.409338.909
41285.109331.595
42282.033326.212
43279.590321.700
44275.781315.538
45272.016310.030
46269.189303.904
47265.784298.382
48263.225291.224
49260.314285.843
50258.137280.064
51254.616274.850
52251.435269.664
53248.593263.636
54246.457257.911
55242.967252.141
56240.035245.200
57237.279241.125
58234.783237.028
59232.712232.555
60230.427226.723
61228.540220.945
62226.007216.754
63223.738212.860
64219.618208.106
65216.791204.424
66214.181200.680
67211.366197.198
68208.324192.681
69205.692188.065
70202.799184.759
71200.398180.260
72197.554176.673
73194.873172.483
74191.907168.756
75189.520164.642
76187.001160.983
77183.919157.011
78180.594153.357
79176.988149.869
80173.813145.317
81170.848141.055
82167.869137.016
83164.716132.445
84161.148128.630
85157.818125.330
86154.884120.897
87151.418116.338
88147.670112.674
89143.904108.284
90141.029103.410
91135.76898.863
92131.96993.496
93126.99087.770
94121.64380.780
95116.28975.750
96109.72169.927
97102.18161.343
9891.54753.825
9976.60644.851


About the probability distribution product


  1. The forecast is a simulation from the Bayesian Joint Probability (BJP) Model. The simulation comprises 5000 members.
  2. The forecast skill of the BJP model is different for different forecast periods of the year. Please look at the Model Validation results to assess model skill for this forecast period.
  3. The historical reference is a probabilistic representation of the historical data.
  4. The forecast location name is displayed in the graph title. Site forecast locations are followed by the Australian Water Resources Council (AWRC) river station number in brackets e.g. (405219).
  5. The streamflow data used for new forecasts and for verification is from realtime data sources which are not rigorously quality controlled.
  6. The historical reference plot and the historical data plots are derived from the available historical record. The legend shows the year associated with the start month of the forecast period.
  7. The RMSEP skill scores have been defined as less than 10 very low skill, 10-20 low skill, 20-40 moderate skill, greater than 40 high skill.
  8. The 25% quartile, also defined as the first quartile cuts off the lowest 25% of data. The 75% quartile, also defined as the third quartile cuts off the lowest 75%. The interquartile range, also called the middle fifty, is a measure of statistical dispersion, being equal to the difference between the third and first quartiles.
  9. Further explanation of some technical terms is provided under the FAQ.


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