Seasonal Streamflow Forecasts

Probability distribution for Unregulated inflow to Goulburn Weir


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Product list for Unregulated inflow to Goulburn Weir



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Probability distribution for Unregulated inflow to Goulburn Weir ( Feb 2014 )

Basic Statistics
Streamflow Forecast
(3 month total flow in GL)
Historical Reference
(3 month total flow in GL)
25% Quartile42.87249.577
Median58.40075.748
Mean64.52493.115
75% Quartile79.321116.039
Interquartile Range36.44966.462

Exceedance Probability
Exceedance Prob. of
Streamflow (%)
Streamflow Forecast
(3 month total flow in GL)
Historical Reference
(3 month total flow in GL)
1175.643354.291
2150.351281.161
3139.273256.744
4131.588238.230
5123.516225.353
6117.841208.533
7113.472197.411
8109.439187.500
9106.794178.045
10103.979171.208
11101.405165.698
1298.810159.778
1396.804155.394
1494.623151.091
1593.128146.460
1691.206142.855
1789.620138.721
1887.910134.593
1986.622131.026
2085.378128.258
2184.175125.618
2282.949122.719
2381.692120.715
2480.448117.829
2579.327116.040
2678.247114.513
2777.194112.208
2876.238110.395
2975.149108.309
3074.398106.036
3173.251103.979
3272.226101.911
3371.285100.292
3470.41898.708
3569.73096.554
3668.78794.847
3768.10093.158
3867.15791.594
3966.24290.318
4065.60288.652
4164.72887.052
4264.00685.875
4363.34584.888
4462.58283.539
4561.76482.332
4661.03680.989
4760.27179.777
4859.69078.205
4959.08177.021
5058.40075.748
5157.62174.597
5256.82673.451
5356.27272.117
5455.75670.847
5555.13169.564
5654.47468.017
5753.82367.107
5853.24766.190
5952.62565.186
6052.06763.874
6151.37562.570
6250.67061.622
6349.99960.738
6449.47359.656
6548.88658.816
6648.39957.959
6747.71357.160
6847.17356.121
6946.68355.055
7046.12454.289
7145.42253.242
7244.78752.405
7344.14551.424
7443.47150.547
7542.86849.576
7642.25348.708
7741.66447.763
7840.92846.889
7940.31846.051
8039.55744.953
8139.06343.919
8238.36542.933
8337.46341.811
8436.61340.868
8535.76040.049
8634.93438.941
8733.99837.793
8833.13236.864
8932.41135.743
9031.42934.487
9130.39633.304
9229.45131.893
9328.28830.369
9426.92128.479
9525.71527.097
9624.06025.471
9722.51123.019
9820.49720.809
9917.57318.076


About the probability distribution product


  1. The forecast is a simulation from the Bayesian Joint Probability (BJP) Model. The simulation comprises 5000 members.
  2. The forecast skill of the BJP model is different for different forecast periods of the year. Please look at the Model Validation results to assess model skill for this forecast period.
  3. The historical reference is a probabilistic representation of the historical data.
  4. The forecast location name is displayed in the graph title. Site forecast locations are followed by the Australian Water Resources Council (AWRC) river station number in brackets e.g. (405219).
  5. The streamflow data used for new forecasts and for verification is from realtime data sources which are not rigorously quality controlled.
  6. The historical reference plot and the historical data plots are derived from the available historical record. The legend shows the year associated with the start month of the forecast period.
  7. The RMSEP skill scores have been defined as less than 10 very low skill, 10-20 low skill, 20-40 moderate skill, greater than 40 high skill.
  8. The 25% quartile, also defined as the first quartile cuts off the lowest 25% of data. The 75% quartile, also defined as the third quartile cuts off the lowest 75%. The interquartile range, also called the middle fifty, is a measure of statistical dispersion, being equal to the difference between the third and first quartiles.
  9. Further explanation of some technical terms is provided under the FAQ.


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