Seasonal Streamflow Forecasts

Probability distribution for Unregulated inflow to Goulburn Weir


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Product list for Unregulated inflow to Goulburn Weir



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Probability distribution for Unregulated inflow to Goulburn Weir ( Jan  )

Basic Statistics
Streamflow Forecast
(3 month total flow in GL)
Historical Reference
(3 month total flow in GL)
25% Quartile39.45152.587
Median53.87978.982
Mean59.20995.533
75% Quartile73.311118.928
Interquartile Range33.86066.341

Exceedance Probability
Exceedance Prob. of
Streamflow (%)
Streamflow Forecast
(3 month total flow in GL)
Historical Reference
(3 month total flow in GL)
1151.310347.108
2135.593278.043
3123.689254.830
4116.318237.169
5111.871224.854
6107.616208.724
7104.032198.030
8101.019188.479
998.472179.349
1095.484172.735
1192.862167.397
1291.085161.653
1389.322157.395
1487.378153.210
1585.555148.701
1684.070145.186
1782.554141.153
1881.120137.119
1979.845133.630
2078.889130.920
2177.992128.333
2276.695125.489
2375.569123.523
2474.515120.687
2573.321118.929
2672.085117.426
2771.053115.157
2870.175113.371
2969.205111.314
3068.386109.072
3167.660107.041
3266.935104.997
3366.095103.395
3465.283101.828
3564.35699.695
3663.56798.003
3762.87396.327
3861.99994.775
3961.15493.508
4060.46991.852
4159.83090.261
4259.15689.089
4358.44488.106
4457.63786.762
4556.95285.559
4656.36784.219
4755.74983.010
4855.18481.439
4954.44980.256
5053.87978.982
5153.26077.831
5252.65276.683
5352.01675.346
5451.33374.072
5550.75472.785
5650.17471.230
5749.61870.315
5848.95369.393
5948.48368.383
6047.91567.062
6147.30165.747
6246.74764.791
6346.22963.899
6445.79262.806
6545.31161.957
6644.81561.091
6744.29560.283
6843.78059.230
6943.10558.150
7042.46357.373
7141.80456.312
7241.29855.462
7340.58954.464
7440.00253.573
7539.44352.585
7638.90351.702
7738.20250.738
7837.53449.847
7936.89048.992
8036.15347.870
8135.41146.813
8234.84545.804
8333.94144.655
8433.42743.688
8532.75842.847
8632.21741.709
8731.39840.529
8830.77039.572
8929.93038.417
9028.94837.120
9128.09635.898
9227.02934.437
9326.07532.856
9425.05130.891
9523.90229.451
9622.48227.753
9721.00725.184
9818.87722.859
9915.88219.970


About the probability distribution product


  1. The forecast is a simulation from the Bayesian Joint Probability (BJP) Model. The simulation comprises 5000 members.
  2. The forecast skill of the BJP model is different for different forecast periods of the year. Please look at the Model Validation results to assess model skill for this forecast period.
  3. The historical reference is a probabilistic representation of the historical data.
  4. The forecast location name is displayed in the graph title. Site forecast locations are followed by the Australian Water Resources Council (AWRC) river station number in brackets e.g. (405219).
  5. The streamflow data used for new forecasts and for verification is from realtime data sources which are not rigorously quality controlled.
  6. The historical reference plot and the historical data plots are derived from the available historical record. The legend shows the year associated with the start month of the forecast period.
  7. The RMSEP skill scores have been defined as less than 10 very low skill, 10-20 low skill, 20-40 moderate skill, greater than 40 high skill.
  8. The 25% quartile, also defined as the first quartile cuts off the lowest 25% of data. The 75% quartile, also defined as the third quartile cuts off the lowest 75%. The interquartile range, also called the middle fifty, is a measure of statistical dispersion, being equal to the difference between the third and first quartiles.
  9. Further explanation of some technical terms is provided under the FAQ.


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