Seasonal Streamflow Forecasts

Probability distribution for Unregulated inflow to Goulburn Weir


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Product list for Unregulated inflow to Goulburn Weir



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Probability distribution for Unregulated inflow to Goulburn Weir ( Jan  )

Basic Statistics
Streamflow Forecast
(3 month total flow in GL)
Historical Reference
(3 month total flow in GL)
25% Quartile25.15252.587
Median35.19178.982
Mean39.14495.533
75% Quartile49.377118.928
Interquartile Range24.22466.341

Exceedance Probability
Exceedance Prob. of
Streamflow (%)
Streamflow Forecast
(3 month total flow in GL)
Historical Reference
(3 month total flow in GL)
1106.187347.108
294.683278.043
385.578254.830
480.615237.169
577.257224.854
673.881208.724
771.660198.030
869.131188.479
966.651179.349
1065.074172.735
1162.983167.397
1261.357161.653
1360.124157.395
1459.014153.210
1557.816148.701
1656.740145.186
1755.816141.153
1854.934137.119
1954.210133.630
2053.358130.920
2152.514128.333
2251.622125.489
2350.840123.523
2450.097120.687
2549.379118.929
2648.484117.426
2747.597115.157
2846.787113.371
2946.246111.314
3045.428109.072
3144.904107.041
3244.222104.997
3343.681103.395
3443.077101.828
3542.53199.695
3642.00498.003
3741.43996.327
3840.92894.775
3940.38693.508
4039.88191.852
4139.34790.261
4238.88689.089
4338.47688.106
4438.02086.762
4537.59485.559
4637.01484.219
4736.67183.010
4836.23281.439
4935.64580.256
5035.19178.982
5134.79177.831
5234.42476.683
5334.02975.346
5433.49874.072
5533.11672.785
5632.69571.230
5732.35670.315
5831.90669.393
5931.57068.383
6031.23767.062
6130.81865.747
6230.37964.791
6329.95663.899
6429.67762.806
6529.23961.957
6628.83161.091
6728.43560.283
6828.00859.230
6927.65058.150
7027.31457.373
7126.93856.312
7226.55055.462
7326.02754.464
7425.64153.573
7525.14852.585
7624.72051.702
7724.20450.738
7823.66149.847
7923.14048.992
8022.58247.870
8122.21246.813
8221.77245.804
8321.24444.655
8420.74543.688
8520.32942.847
8619.80341.709
8719.40240.529
8818.78039.572
8918.17638.417
9017.67037.120
9117.13735.898
9216.46134.437
9315.75932.856
9414.93630.891
9514.04929.451
9612.85227.753
9711.85625.184
9810.46522.859
998.33119.970


About the probability distribution product


  1. The forecast is a simulation from the Bayesian Joint Probability (BJP) Model. The simulation comprises 5000 members.
  2. The forecast skill of the BJP model is different for different forecast periods of the year. Please look at the Model Validation results to assess model skill for this forecast period.
  3. The historical reference is a probabilistic representation of the historical data.
  4. The forecast location name is displayed in the graph title. Site forecast locations are followed by the Australian Water Resources Council (AWRC) river station number in brackets e.g. (405219).
  5. The streamflow data used for new forecasts and for verification is from realtime data sources which are not rigorously quality controlled.
  6. The historical reference plot and the historical data plots are derived from the available historical record. The legend shows the year associated with the start month of the forecast period.
  7. The RMSEP skill scores have been defined as less than 10 very low skill, 10-20 low skill, 20-40 moderate skill, greater than 40 high skill.
  8. The 25% quartile, also defined as the first quartile cuts off the lowest 25% of data. The 75% quartile, also defined as the third quartile cuts off the lowest 75%. The interquartile range, also called the middle fifty, is a measure of statistical dispersion, being equal to the difference between the third and first quartiles.
  9. Further explanation of some technical terms is provided under the FAQ.


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