Seasonal Streamflow Forecasts

Probability distribution for Unregulated inflow to Goulburn Weir


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Product list for Unregulated inflow to Goulburn Weir



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Probability distribution for Unregulated inflow to Goulburn Weir ( Jan 2011 )

Basic Statistics
Streamflow Forecast
(3 month total flow in GL)
Historical Reference
(3 month total flow in GL)
25% Quartile178.78752.587
Median239.57578.982
Mean259.14495.533
75% Quartile314.331118.928
Interquartile Range135.54466.341

Exceedance Probability
Exceedance Prob. of
Streamflow (%)
Streamflow Forecast
(3 month total flow in GL)
Historical Reference
(3 month total flow in GL)
1620.139347.108
2561.098278.043
3521.027254.830
4490.033237.169
5470.672224.854
6453.911208.724
7436.800198.030
8424.918188.479
9413.362179.349
10404.788172.735
11395.670167.397
12386.674161.653
13379.672157.395
14373.258153.210
15366.917148.701
16360.916145.186
17356.599141.153
18350.337137.119
19344.636133.630
20339.589130.920
21335.118128.333
22328.524125.489
23324.506123.523
24319.841120.687
25314.353118.929
26310.845117.426
27307.513115.157
28304.382113.371
29299.847111.314
30296.624109.072
31293.693107.041
32290.186104.997
33287.742103.395
34284.919101.828
35281.91999.695
36279.18498.003
37276.33596.327
38272.56694.775
39269.18393.508
40266.34291.852
41263.27490.261
42260.58989.089
43257.47488.106
44255.77386.762
45253.57585.559
46250.97384.219
47248.60483.010
48245.43481.439
49242.25780.256
50239.57578.982
51236.99877.831
52234.66976.683
53232.48275.346
54230.44174.072
55227.61472.785
56225.25071.230
57222.51770.315
58219.93869.393
59217.81268.383
60215.51267.062
61213.09465.747
62210.12664.791
63207.57163.899
64205.67362.806
65203.51261.957
66201.32861.091
67199.24560.283
68196.16059.230
69193.55258.150
70191.25957.373
71188.78956.312
72186.62055.462
73184.52854.464
74181.52153.573
75178.74952.585
76175.92851.702
77173.49050.738
78171.04749.847
79169.29448.992
80166.61847.870
81163.84746.813
82160.58945.804
83158.31644.655
84155.49843.688
85152.47342.847
86149.97541.709
87146.72440.529
88143.65139.572
89139.77238.417
90136.59037.120
91133.56135.898
92129.36334.437
93124.66532.856
94119.58330.891
95115.02229.451
96107.42827.753
97100.59725.184
9893.32322.859
9982.38619.970


About the probability distribution product


  1. The forecast is a simulation from the Bayesian Joint Probability (BJP) Model. The simulation comprises 5000 members.
  2. The forecast skill of the BJP model is different for different forecast periods of the year. Please look at the Model Validation results to assess model skill for this forecast period.
  3. The historical reference is a probabilistic representation of the historical data.
  4. The forecast location name is displayed in the graph title. Site forecast locations are followed by the Australian Water Resources Council (AWRC) river station number in brackets e.g. (405219).
  5. The streamflow data used for new forecasts and for verification is from realtime data sources which are not rigorously quality controlled.
  6. The historical reference plot and the historical data plots are derived from the available historical record. The legend shows the year associated with the start month of the forecast period.
  7. The RMSEP skill scores have been defined as less than 10 very low skill, 10-20 low skill, 20-40 moderate skill, greater than 40 high skill.
  8. The 25% quartile, also defined as the first quartile cuts off the lowest 25% of data. The 75% quartile, also defined as the third quartile cuts off the lowest 75%. The interquartile range, also called the middle fifty, is a measure of statistical dispersion, being equal to the difference between the third and first quartiles.
  9. Further explanation of some technical terms is provided under the FAQ.


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