Seasonal Streamflow Forecasts

Historical and exceedance probability for Unregulated inflow to Goulburn Weir


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Product list for Unregulated inflow to Goulburn Weir


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Historical and exceedance probability for Unregulated inflow to Goulburn Weir(  )

Historical Observations
Average (1950+) (GL)Last year (2011) (GL)Observed (2012) (GL)Minimum (2006) (GL)10 yr average (2002+) (GL)Maximum (2010) (GL)
Dec68.77190.83337.1036.83564.267297.300
Dec-Jan111.147138.44654.40812.680103.635506.910
Dec-Feb140.409203.89575.65116.096139.047645.409

Notes:

  • The minimum and maximum are determined from the total for the 3 month period.

Exceedance Probability Summary
Exceedance Prob. of
Streamflow (%)
Streamflow Forecast
(3 month total flow in GL)
Historical Reference
(3 month total flow in GL)
10145.356255.545
20120.478190.316
30105.818156.544
4093.524130.109
5083.932110.478
6074.79092.406
7066.16277.809
8057.37263.586
9045.80147.630

Exceedance Probability
Exceedance Prob. of
Streamflow (%)
Streamflow Forecast
(3 month total flow in GL)
Historical Reference
(3 month total flow in GL)
1234.055533.180
2205.590422.343
3189.573385.321
4179.323357.243
5170.513337.711
6163.125312.193
7158.116295.316
8153.404280.275
9148.979265.923
10145.356255.545
11141.965247.180
12139.211238.191
13136.178231.535
14133.087225.000
15130.350217.966
16127.874212.490
17126.115206.211
18124.222199.940
19121.962194.521
20120.478190.316
21118.966186.305
22117.349181.899
23116.045178.854
24114.487174.468
25113.053171.750
26111.589169.428
27109.992165.925
28108.479163.170
29107.144159.998
30105.818156.544
31104.410153.417
32103.178150.272
33102.086147.810
34100.606145.402
3599.466142.127
3698.262139.532
3796.872136.962
3895.660134.584
3994.484132.643
4093.524130.109
4192.324127.676
4291.402125.886
4390.261124.384
4489.194122.332
4587.999120.496
4687.282118.453
4786.416116.609
4885.609114.216
4984.709112.415
5083.932110.478
5183.021108.728
5282.247106.984
5381.157104.953
5480.096103.020
5579.121101.068
5678.11798.713
5777.27897.327
5876.58095.931
5975.59094.403
6074.79092.406
6173.98090.421
6273.15888.976
6372.37187.631
6471.26485.984
6570.40484.704
6669.51483.399
6768.63582.183
6867.81580.600
6967.08178.976
7066.16277.809
7165.27176.215
7264.26174.940
7363.37073.445
7462.42672.110
7561.64770.630
7660.79669.308
7759.87267.867
7859.02966.536
7958.24865.260
8057.37263.586
8156.35462.009
8255.25760.507
8354.20258.796
8453.27757.360
8552.10156.110
8650.87454.422
8749.75552.672
8848.57351.255
8947.43649.545
9045.80147.630
9144.63445.826
9243.09243.673
9341.32741.348
9439.60038.464
9537.86236.354
9635.89233.873
9733.17230.130
9830.57226.754
9925.09722.579


About the historical and exceedance probablity product


  1. The forecast is a simulation from the Bayesian Joint Probability (BJP) Model. The simulation comprises 5000 members.
  2. The forecast skill of the BJP model is different for different forecast periods of the year. Please look at the Model Validation results to assess model skill for this forecast period.
  3. The historical reference is a probabilistic representation of the historical data.
  4. The forecast location name is displayed in the graph title. Site forecast locations are followed by the Australian Water Resources Council (AWRC) river station number in brackets e.g. (405219).
  5. The streamflow data used for new forecasts and for verification is from realtime data sources which are not rigorously quality controlled.
  6. The historical reference plot and the historical data plots are derived from the available historical record. The legend shows the year associated with the start month of the forecast period.
  7. The RMSEP skill scores have been defined as less than 10 very low skill, 10-20 low skill, 20-40 moderate skill, greater than 40 high skill.
  8. Further explanation of some technical terms is provided under the FAQ


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