Seasonal Streamflow Forecasts

Historical and exceedance probability for Unregulated inflow to Goulburn Weir


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Product list for Unregulated inflow to Goulburn Weir


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Historical and exceedance probability for Unregulated inflow to Goulburn Weir(  )

Historical Observations
Average (1950+) (GL)Last year (2013) (GL)Observed (2014) (GL)Minimum (2007) (GL)10 yr average (2004+) (GL)Maximum (1956) (GL)
Jan42.60917.30521.5165.84539.659153.721
Jan-Feb71.87438.54850.2639.26176.307234.709
Jan-Mar103.70560.06066.24516.389108.885460.447

Notes:

  • The minimum and maximum are determined from the total for the 3 month period.

Exceedance Probability Summary
Exceedance Prob. of
Streamflow (%)
Streamflow Forecast
(3 month total flow in GL)
Historical Reference
(3 month total flow in GL)
10157.389172.735
20129.988130.920
30114.702109.072
40101.28391.852
5091.33778.982
6081.65967.062
7072.44957.373
8062.65747.870
9051.08737.120

Exceedance Probability
Exceedance Prob. of
Streamflow (%)
Streamflow Forecast
(3 month total flow in GL)
Historical Reference
(3 month total flow in GL)
1246.690347.108
2220.753278.043
3201.528254.830
4190.396237.169
5182.321224.854
6176.306208.724
7170.228198.030
8165.066188.479
9161.283179.349
10157.389172.735
11153.374167.397
12150.115161.653
13147.721157.395
14144.525153.210
15141.864148.701
16138.793145.186
17136.593141.153
18134.697137.119
19132.181133.630
20129.988130.920
21128.343128.333
22126.968125.489
23125.359123.523
24123.487120.687
25121.622118.929
26120.259117.426
27119.042115.157
28117.728113.371
29116.139111.314
30114.702109.072
31113.356107.041
32111.849104.997
33110.573103.395
34109.005101.828
35107.56199.695
36106.73398.003
37105.56396.327
38104.34594.775
39102.47693.508
40101.28391.852
41100.11190.261
4299.03489.089
4398.06188.106
4497.21686.762
4596.17385.559
4695.08784.219
4794.35683.010
4893.30081.439
4992.31480.256
5091.33778.982
5190.30977.831
5289.41376.683
5388.13475.346
5487.12774.072
5586.02472.785
5685.05971.230
5783.96770.315
5883.10569.393
5982.38968.383
6081.65967.062
6181.02665.747
6280.14064.791
6379.27263.899
6478.42162.806
6577.42061.957
6676.48161.091
6775.57860.283
6874.44659.230
6973.41058.150
7072.44957.373
7171.57056.312
7270.78055.462
7369.83154.464
7468.99453.573
7567.96052.585
7666.80951.702
7765.81650.738
7864.96549.847
7963.79548.992
8062.65747.870
8161.76746.813
8260.98245.804
8359.72444.655
8458.69543.688
8557.50842.847
8656.40741.709
8755.15740.529
8854.07339.572
8952.37538.417
9051.08737.120
9149.56135.898
9248.18534.437
9346.52132.856
9444.44930.891
9542.48729.451
9640.58227.753
9737.66725.184
9834.10422.859
9930.05819.970


About the historical and exceedance probablity product


  1. The forecast is a simulation from the Bayesian Joint Probability (BJP) Model. The simulation comprises 5000 members.
  2. The forecast skill of the BJP model is different for different forecast periods of the year. Please look at the Model Validation results to assess model skill for this forecast period.
  3. The historical reference is a probabilistic representation of the historical data.
  4. The forecast location name is displayed in the graph title. Site forecast locations are followed by the Australian Water Resources Council (AWRC) river station number in brackets e.g. (405219).
  5. The streamflow data used for new forecasts and for verification is from realtime data sources which are not rigorously quality controlled.
  6. The historical reference plot and the historical data plots are derived from the available historical record. The legend shows the year associated with the start month of the forecast period.
  7. The RMSEP skill scores have been defined as less than 10 very low skill, 10-20 low skill, 20-40 moderate skill, greater than 40 high skill.
  8. Further explanation of some technical terms is provided under the FAQ


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