Seasonal Streamflow Forecasts

Historical and exceedance probability for Unregulated inflow to Goulburn Weir


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Historical and exceedance probability for Unregulated inflow to Goulburn Weir ( May 2014 )

Historical Observations
Average (1950+) (GL)Last year (2013) (GL)Observed (2014) (GL)Minimum (2008) (GL)10 yr average (2004+) (GL)Maximum (1956) (GL)
May82.15826.79527.36011.99235.155613.736
May-Jun202.14351.88487.15227.55980.0111166.020
May-Jul393.45096.176275.20865.063178.3781920.966

Notes:

  • The minimum and maximum are determined from the total for the 3 month period.

Exceedance Probability Summary
Exceedance Prob. of
Streamflow (%)
Streamflow Forecast
(3 month total flow in GL)
Historical Reference
(3 month total flow in GL)
10623.421818.065
20492.007564.782
30404.021438.393
40341.177343.979
50289.718277.381
60244.677219.359
70204.582175.207
80161.888134.892
90116.68793.361

Exceedance Probability
Exceedance Prob. of
Streamflow (%)
Streamflow Forecast
(3 month total flow in GL)
Historical Reference
(3 month total flow in GL)
11051.0801803.429
2921.1011442.300
3859.4681311.070
4795.5361208.236
5752.9871135.175
6716.6811038.090
7689.948973.041
8662.806914.636
9643.206858.646
10623.421818.065
11599.266785.335
12582.414750.180
13570.590724.181
14559.538698.696
15546.420671.330
16532.672650.083
17519.825625.798
18511.780601.638
19502.246580.851
20492.007564.782
21480.451549.513
22468.727532.812
23458.560521.315
24449.693504.821
25440.781494.643
26433.582485.977
27425.763472.951
28417.187462.753
29410.338451.061
30404.021438.393
31395.666426.983
32387.808415.568
33381.875406.678
34375.587398.019
35367.682386.302
36362.015377.073
37357.685367.983
38352.588359.613
39346.044352.814
40341.177343.979
41335.650335.548
42330.397329.371
43325.024324.211
44320.801317.193
45314.561310.945
46308.481304.025
47303.213297.814
48298.489289.798
49293.982283.799
50289.718277.381
51284.227271.614
52279.571265.897
53275.768259.280
54271.889253.021
55266.741246.738
56262.794239.212
57257.502234.812
58253.564230.400
59249.378225.598
60244.677219.359
61240.921213.203
62236.358208.753
63232.759204.630
64227.946199.611
65224.383195.736
66220.245191.805
67215.759188.160
68211.933183.442
69208.544178.639
70204.582175.207
71200.141170.550
72196.427166.848
73193.590162.536
74188.382158.711
75183.760154.501
76180.747150.767
77175.906146.724
78170.730143.016
79165.809139.486
80161.888134.892
81157.427130.606
82153.048126.555
83147.573121.988
84144.126118.187
85140.023114.910
86136.517110.521
87130.449106.023
88126.039102.420
89120.90198.119
90116.68793.361
91111.18588.942
92106.65083.748
93101.30278.237
9494.56671.551
9587.05866.769
9679.51961.266
9769.67253.222
9861.03246.250
9949.60538.026


About the historical and exceedance probablity product


  1. The forecast is a simulation from the Bayesian Joint Probability (BJP) Model. The simulation comprises 5000 members.
  2. The forecast skill of the BJP model is different for different forecast periods of the year. Please look at the Model Validation results to assess model skill for this forecast period.
  3. The historical reference is a probabilistic representation of the historical data.
  4. The forecast location name is displayed in the graph title. Site forecast locations are followed by the Australian Water Resources Council (AWRC) river station number in brackets e.g. (405219).
  5. The streamflow data used for new forecasts and for verification is from realtime data sources which are not rigorously quality controlled.
  6. The historical reference plot and the historical data plots are derived from the available historical record. The legend shows the year associated with the start month of the forecast period.
  7. The RMSEP skill scores have been defined as less than 10 very low skill, 10-20 low skill, 20-40 moderate skill, greater than 40 high skill.
  8. Further explanation of some technical terms is provided under the FAQ


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