Seasonal Streamflow Forecasts

Historical and exceedance probability for Unregulated inflow to Goulburn Weir


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Historical and exceedance probability for Unregulated inflow to Goulburn Weir ( Jul 2014 )

Historical Observations
Average (1950+) (GL)Last year (2013) (GL)Observed (2014) (GL)Minimum (2006) (GL)10 yr average (2004+) (GL)Maximum (1956) (GL)
Jul191.30744.292188.05623.72098.367754.946
Jul-Aug435.881226.488306.31750.896244.8531424.564
Jul-Sep657.611392.296370.95578.504377.6591962.631

Notes:

  • The minimum and maximum are determined from the total for the 3 month period.

Exceedance Probability Summary
Exceedance Prob. of
Streamflow (%)
Streamflow Forecast
(3 month total flow in GL)
Historical Reference
(3 month total flow in GL)
10860.5701244.070
20702.001983.927
30605.381821.980
40525.273680.214
50458.763566.901
60400.560458.215
70346.133369.381
80285.677284.311
90217.324194.111

Exceedance Probability
Exceedance Prob. of
Streamflow (%)
Streamflow Forecast
(3 month total flow in GL)
Historical Reference
(3 month total flow in GL)
11333.7371929.661
21184.8281709.555
31112.6741623.409
41051.1201552.650
5996.2821500.267
6962.4011427.407
7924.7051376.147
8899.2221328.171
9879.4551280.201
10860.5701244.070
11831.5191214.010
12814.2871180.722
13795.4721155.387
14779.0201129.917
15766.6581101.818
16754.5391079.432
17744.0951053.196
18730.9541026.366
19713.3961002.663
20702.001983.927
21693.293965.774
22680.391945.510
23672.187931.303
24661.511910.542
25651.058897.499
26643.257886.249
27631.775869.083
28622.655855.424
29614.364839.519
30605.381821.980
31598.036805.902
32590.279789.545
33580.377776.609
34572.417763.843
35563.327746.299
36556.293732.257
37548.943718.227
38540.230705.134
39534.209694.371
40525.273680.214
41515.483666.517
42508.760656.367
43502.579647.813
44495.818636.063
45490.337625.495
46482.067613.667
47476.749602.939
48470.970588.938
49465.049578.345
50458.763566.901
51451.810556.520
52445.390546.139
53438.824534.007
54433.586522.418
55428.276510.675
56423.362496.464
57416.703488.080
58410.603479.622
59406.130470.353
60400.560458.215
61393.755446.135
62387.692437.340
63382.790429.143
64377.198419.104
65372.936411.309
66367.796403.361
67361.909395.956
68357.128386.325
69352.939376.461
70346.133369.381
71339.473359.728
72333.067352.019
73327.655343.002
74321.597334.970
75317.037326.094
76311.334318.191
77305.552309.607
78298.994301.705
79293.366294.160
80285.677284.311
81280.834275.092
82274.147266.355
83268.041256.477
84261.814248.237
85255.321241.119
86247.664231.570
87240.855221.768
88234.122213.907
89225.473204.511
90217.324194.111
91209.283184.447
92198.908173.091
93187.464161.048
94177.575146.460
95165.604136.051
96154.049124.107
97140.957106.735
98120.55891.793
9996.89674.347


About the historical and exceedance probablity product


  1. The forecast is a simulation from the Bayesian Joint Probability (BJP) Model. The simulation comprises 5000 members.
  2. The forecast skill of the BJP model is different for different forecast periods of the year. Please look at the Model Validation results to assess model skill for this forecast period.
  3. The historical reference is a probabilistic representation of the historical data.
  4. The forecast location name is displayed in the graph title. Site forecast locations are followed by the Australian Water Resources Council (AWRC) river station number in brackets e.g. (405219).
  5. The streamflow data used for new forecasts and for verification is from realtime data sources which are not rigorously quality controlled.
  6. The historical reference plot and the historical data plots are derived from the available historical record. The legend shows the year associated with the start month of the forecast period.
  7. The RMSEP skill scores have been defined as less than 10 very low skill, 10-20 low skill, 20-40 moderate skill, greater than 40 high skill.
  8. Further explanation of some technical terms is provided under the FAQ


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