Seasonal Streamflow Forecasts

Exceedance probability for Gwydir River at Yarrowyck


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Product list for Gwydir River at Yarrowyck


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Exceedance probability for Gwydir River at Yarrowyck(  )

Exceedance Probability Summary
Exceedance Prob. of
Streamflow (%)
Streamflow Forecast
(3 month total flow in GL)
Historical Reference
(3 month total flow in GL)
1041.95453.071
2025.72427.408
3017.27217.019
4012.21410.734
508.7227.129
606.3634.565
704.4812.981
802.8451.815
901.4230.902

Exceedance Probability
Exceedance Prob. of
Streamflow (%)
Streamflow Forecast
(3 month total flow in GL)
Historical Reference
(3 month total flow in GL)
1108.031155.057
285.084120.050
374.336106.611
465.58295.778
559.66187.926
655.41477.323
751.39070.145
848.11463.683
944.59257.509
1041.95453.071
1139.53949.529
1237.32345.773
1334.81743.037
1432.94640.396
1531.49937.612
1630.30035.491
1729.17133.115
1828.03830.809
1926.80428.872
2025.72427.408
2124.95426.045
2223.91124.585
2322.66223.601
2421.73522.218
2520.78121.382
2620.02920.681
2719.41919.647
2818.68418.854
2917.91717.963
3017.27217.019
3116.58516.189
3216.11915.377
3315.63714.758
3415.09914.167
3514.47513.385
3613.88212.784
3713.43112.204
3813.01011.681
3912.59811.265
4012.21410.734
4111.81110.239
4211.3639.884
4311.0599.591
4410.7919.200
4510.4238.858
4610.0748.487
479.6918.160
489.3207.748
498.9737.446
508.7227.129
518.4426.850
528.1926.579
537.9156.271
547.7225.986
557.5035.707
567.2495.381
577.0205.195
586.7855.011
596.5884.815
606.3634.565
616.1464.325
625.9544.155
635.7444.001
645.5103.817
655.3263.678
665.1413.539
674.9733.412
684.8213.252
694.6693.092
704.4812.981
714.3312.832
724.1412.717
733.9462.585
743.7652.471
753.6372.348
763.4662.242
773.2892.129
783.1562.028
792.9981.935
802.8451.815
812.6701.708
822.5211.609
832.3881.500
842.2481.413
852.0871.339
861.9561.244
871.8011.149
881.6681.076
891.5370.992
901.4230.902
911.3180.823
921.1960.734
931.0670.644
940.9150.543
950.7420.475
960.5950.403
970.4720.307
980.3020.233
990.1660.159


About the exceedance probability product


  1. The forecast is a simulation from the Bayesian Joint Probability (BJP) Model. The simulation comprises 5000 members.
  2. The forecast skill of the BJP model is different for different forecast periods of the year. Please look at the Model Validation results to assess model skill for this forecast period.
  3. The historical reference is a probabilistic representation of the historical data.
  4. The forecast location name is displayed in the graph title. Site forecast locations are followed by the Australian Water Resources Council (AWRC) river station number in brackets e.g. (405219).
  5. The streamflow data used for new forecasts and for verification is from realtime data sources which are not rigorously quality controlled.
  6. The historical reference plot and the historical data plots are derived from the available historical record. The legend shows the year associated with the start month of the forecast period.
  7. The RMSEP skill scores have been defined as less than 10 very low skill, 10-20 low skill, 20-40 moderate skill, greater than 40 high skill.
  8. Further explanation of some technical terms is provided under the FAQ.


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