Seasonal Streamflow Forecasts

Exceedance probability for Gwydir River at Yarrowyck


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Product list for Gwydir River at Yarrowyck


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Exceedance probability for Gwydir River at Yarrowyck(  )

Exceedance Probability Summary
Exceedance Prob. of
Streamflow (%)
Streamflow Forecast
(3 month total flow in GL)
Historical Reference
(3 month total flow in GL)
1025.84644.197
2016.74724.660
3012.08416.095
409.04010.613
506.9287.319
605.2344.879
703.8603.310
802.7032.108
901.5181.118

Exceedance Probability
Exceedance Prob. of
Streamflow (%)
Streamflow Forecast
(3 month total flow in GL)
Historical Reference
(3 month total flow in GL)
159.835115.566
249.54791.345
343.84082.026
439.88074.493
536.78869.013
633.21461.569
731.13856.489
828.87251.878
927.08847.428
1025.84644.197
1124.43241.594
1223.30838.808
1321.95636.760
1420.95734.765
1520.03532.643
1619.11531.012
1718.32929.168
1817.74227.360
1917.22325.828
2016.74724.660
2116.20423.564
2215.67322.383
2315.07221.580
2414.61220.446
2514.11219.756
2613.65819.175
2713.24918.313
2812.90417.648
2912.46316.896
3012.08416.095
3111.69315.386
3211.41814.689
3311.14714.155
3410.81013.642
3510.55312.960
3610.30512.432
379.99911.921
389.67311.458
399.35911.087
409.04010.613
418.78110.169
428.5759.848
438.3849.583
448.1779.228
457.9688.916
467.7228.576
477.5318.276
487.3357.895
497.1167.615
506.9287.319
516.7617.058
526.5546.804
536.3826.514
546.2046.244
556.0415.979
565.8635.667
575.7305.488
585.5725.311
595.4145.121
605.2344.879
615.0854.645
624.9384.479
634.7914.327
644.6514.146
654.4954.008
664.3933.870
674.2653.744
684.1283.583
693.9973.423
703.8603.310
713.7363.160
723.6163.042
733.4972.908
743.3872.791
753.2662.664
763.1222.554
773.0242.437
782.9322.332
792.8052.234
802.7032.108
812.5751.994
822.4671.889
832.3591.773
842.2641.679
852.1411.599
861.9931.496
871.8681.392
881.7621.312
891.6471.218
901.5181.118
911.4051.029
921.2670.928
931.1370.825
941.0290.708
950.9070.628
960.7470.542
970.6130.425
980.4430.334
990.2600.238


About the exceedance probability product


  1. The forecast is a simulation from the Bayesian Joint Probability (BJP) Model. The simulation comprises 5000 members.
  2. The forecast skill of the BJP model is different for different forecast periods of the year. Please look at the Model Validation results to assess model skill for this forecast period.
  3. The historical reference is a probabilistic representation of the historical data.
  4. The forecast location name is displayed in the graph title. Site forecast locations are followed by the Australian Water Resources Council (AWRC) river station number in brackets e.g. (405219).
  5. The streamflow data used for new forecasts and for verification is from realtime data sources which are not rigorously quality controlled.
  6. The historical reference plot and the historical data plots are derived from the available historical record. The legend shows the year associated with the start month of the forecast period.
  7. The RMSEP skill scores have been defined as less than 10 very low skill, 10-20 low skill, 20-40 moderate skill, greater than 40 high skill.
  8. Further explanation of some technical terms is provided under the FAQ.


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