Seasonal Streamflow Forecasts

Exceedance probability for Gwydir River at Yarrowyck


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Product list for Gwydir River at Yarrowyck


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Exceedance probability for Gwydir River at Yarrowyck( May 2014 )

Exceedance Probability Summary
Exceedance Prob. of
Streamflow (%)
Historical Reference
(3 month total flow in GL)
1030.445
2014.853
308.914
405.458
503.536
602.206
701.406
800.834
900.400

Exceedance Probability
Exceedance Prob. of
Streamflow (%)
Historical Reference
(3 month total flow in GL)
197.480
274.181
365.263
458.100
552.931
645.993
741.335
837.178
933.245
1030.445
1128.229
1225.899
1324.215
1422.602
1520.913
1619.637
1718.218
1816.850
1915.710
2014.853
2114.060
2213.215
2312.647
2411.854
2511.377
2610.978
2710.392
289.944
299.443
308.914
318.451
328.000
337.658
347.332
356.901
366.572
376.256
385.971
395.745
405.458
415.191
425.000
434.843
444.634
454.452
464.254
474.081
483.862
493.703
503.536
513.390
523.248
533.087
542.939
552.794
562.626
572.529
582.435
592.334
602.206
612.084
621.997
631.919
641.826
651.756
661.686
671.622
681.542
691.462
701.406
711.332
721.275
731.210
741.154
751.093
761.041
770.986
780.937
790.891
800.834
810.781
820.734
830.682
840.640
850.605
860.560
870.515
880.481
890.441
900.400
910.363
920.322
930.281
940.235
950.205
960.173
970.130
980.099
990.067


About the exceedance probability product


  1. The forecast is a simulation from the Bayesian Joint Probability (BJP) Model. The simulation comprises 5000 members.
  2. The forecast skill of the BJP model is different for different forecast periods of the year. Please look at the Model Validation results to assess model skill for this forecast period.
  3. The historical reference is a probabilistic representation of the historical data.
  4. The forecast location name is displayed in the graph title. Site forecast locations are followed by the Australian Water Resources Council (AWRC) river station number in brackets e.g. (405219).
  5. The streamflow data used for new forecasts and for verification is from realtime data sources which are not rigorously quality controlled.
  6. The historical reference plot and the historical data plots are derived from the available historical record. The legend shows the year associated with the start month of the forecast period.
  7. The RMSEP skill scores have been defined as less than 10 very low skill, 10-20 low skill, 20-40 moderate skill, greater than 40 high skill.
  8. Further explanation of some technical terms is provided under the FAQ.


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