Seasonal Streamflow Forecasts

Probability distribution for Gwydir River at Yarrowyck


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Probability distribution for Gwydir River at Yarrowyck( Oct 2014 )

Basic Statistics
Streamflow Forecast
(3 month total flow in GL)
Historical Reference
(3 month total flow in GL)
25% Quartile1.5482.512
Median4.3707.883
Mean7.91412.279
75% Quartile10.60818.646
Interquartile Range9.06016.133

Exceedance Probability
Exceedance Prob. of
Streamflow (%)
Streamflow Forecast
(3 month total flow in GL)
Historical Reference
(3 month total flow in GL)
146.13953.011
237.73545.822
332.71642.999
429.70140.673
527.37438.947
625.07236.540
723.69934.840
822.21533.244
921.07431.643
1019.95330.433
1119.06529.423
1217.90728.303
1317.11027.448
1416.42426.586
1515.83125.633
1615.07724.872
1714.42923.979
1813.82023.063
1913.35722.253
2012.91621.611
2112.32620.989
2211.76920.294
2311.40619.806
2411.04819.093
2510.61118.646
2610.19018.260
279.85417.671
289.53417.203
299.20616.659
308.88616.061
318.51415.513
328.20814.958
337.91914.521
347.63214.092
357.40913.504
367.16013.037
376.86512.573
386.63912.143
396.41011.793
406.17311.335
415.96310.897
425.77010.575
435.60210.307
445.4089.941
455.2399.615
465.0299.255
474.8478.933
484.6718.519
494.5238.211
504.3707.883
514.2197.590
524.0807.302
533.9396.972
543.7746.663
553.6686.356
563.5395.995
573.3775.786
583.2495.579
593.1025.357
602.9795.074
612.8604.799
622.7724.604
632.6604.426
642.5454.214
652.4524.053
662.3513.892
672.2603.745
682.1523.559
692.0803.374
701.9883.244
711.8863.072
721.7942.938
731.6992.786
741.6312.654
751.5482.512
761.4752.389
771.4032.260
781.3282.144
791.2382.037
801.1681.902
811.0981.779
821.0171.668
830.9541.546
840.9011.448
850.8471.367
860.7911.261
870.7171.157
880.6501.077
890.5750.986
900.5100.889
910.4360.804
920.3790.710
930.3060.617
940.2360.513
950.1810.444
960.1180.372
970.0390.278
980.0000.208
990.0000.138


About the probability distribution product


  1. The forecast is a simulation from the Bayesian Joint Probability (BJP) Model. The simulation comprises 5000 members.
  2. The forecast skill of the BJP model is different for different forecast periods of the year. Please look at the Model Validation results to assess model skill for this forecast period.
  3. The historical reference is a probabilistic representation of the historical data.
  4. The forecast location name is displayed in the graph title. Site forecast locations are followed by the Australian Water Resources Council (AWRC) river station number in brackets e.g. (405219).
  5. The streamflow data used for new forecasts and for verification is from realtime data sources which are not rigorously quality controlled.
  6. The historical reference plot and the historical data plots are derived from the available historical record. The legend shows the year associated with the start month of the forecast period.
  7. The RMSEP skill scores have been defined as less than 10 very low skill, 10-20 low skill, 20-40 moderate skill, greater than 40 high skill.
  8. The 25% quartile, also defined as the first quartile cuts off the lowest 25% of data. The 75% quartile, also defined as the third quartile cuts off the lowest 75%. The interquartile range, also called the middle fifty, is a measure of statistical dispersion, being equal to the difference between the third and first quartiles.
  9. Further explanation of some technical terms is provided under the FAQ.


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