Seasonal Streamflow Forecasts

Probability distribution for Gwydir River at Yarrowyck


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Product list for Gwydir River at Yarrowyck


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Probability distribution for Gwydir River at Yarrowyck( Sep 2014 )

Basic Statistics
Streamflow Forecast
(3 month total flow in GL)
Historical Reference
(3 month total flow in GL)
25% Quartile2.4832.726
Median6.18310.350
Mean10.22615.459
75% Quartile13.92224.244
Interquartile Range11.43921.518

Exceedance Probability
Exceedance Prob. of
Streamflow (%)
Streamflow Forecast
(3 month total flow in GL)
Historical Reference
(3 month total flow in GL)
153.59164.006
244.58555.752
339.25252.509
436.75649.837
533.14747.853
630.76345.084
729.21543.128
827.75941.290
926.54739.445
1025.46838.048
1124.13636.882
1223.06335.585
1321.92734.594
1420.79733.594
1520.07132.486
1619.31031.599
1718.53030.556
1817.78429.483
1917.10828.531
2016.46827.774
2115.89427.039
2215.34126.214
2314.77525.633
2414.31024.782
2513.92324.244
2613.47823.779
2713.00123.068
2812.49122.500
2912.08821.836
3011.72521.101
3111.40520.424
3211.04719.734
3310.65119.187
3410.22018.645
359.94017.900
369.60017.302
379.25716.704
388.97016.145
398.67315.686
408.37615.083
418.13914.500
427.90014.069
437.68313.707
447.45913.210
457.24812.766
467.01112.271
476.80511.824
486.63311.247
496.42110.814
506.18310.350
515.9689.935
525.7689.524
535.6229.051
545.4358.606
555.2348.164
565.1047.641
574.8767.339
584.6977.040
594.5286.719
604.3896.308
614.2415.912
624.0705.632
633.9525.377
643.8235.073
653.6904.844
663.5494.616
673.4234.410
683.3164.149
693.1823.891
703.0513.712
712.9503.476
722.8483.295
732.7423.089
742.6172.913
752.4812.726
762.3672.565
772.2692.398
782.1732.250
792.0502.114
801.9541.944
811.8251.793
821.7101.657
831.6001.510
841.5141.395
851.4261.300
861.3161.178
871.2131.061
881.1500.973
891.0440.873
900.9730.770
910.8780.681
920.8030.585
930.7000.493
940.6070.393
950.4770.330
960.3890.266
970.2870.186
980.1820.131
990.0430.080


About the probability distribution product


  1. The forecast is a simulation from the Bayesian Joint Probability (BJP) Model. The simulation comprises 5000 members.
  2. The forecast skill of the BJP model is different for different forecast periods of the year. Please look at the Model Validation results to assess model skill for this forecast period.
  3. The historical reference is a probabilistic representation of the historical data.
  4. The forecast location name is displayed in the graph title. Site forecast locations are followed by the Australian Water Resources Council (AWRC) river station number in brackets e.g. (405219).
  5. The streamflow data used for new forecasts and for verification is from realtime data sources which are not rigorously quality controlled.
  6. The historical reference plot and the historical data plots are derived from the available historical record. The legend shows the year associated with the start month of the forecast period.
  7. The RMSEP skill scores have been defined as less than 10 very low skill, 10-20 low skill, 20-40 moderate skill, greater than 40 high skill.
  8. The 25% quartile, also defined as the first quartile cuts off the lowest 25% of data. The 75% quartile, also defined as the third quartile cuts off the lowest 75%. The interquartile range, also called the middle fifty, is a measure of statistical dispersion, being equal to the difference between the third and first quartiles.
  9. Further explanation of some technical terms is provided under the FAQ.


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