Seasonal Streamflow Forecasts

Probability distribution for Gwydir River at Yarrowyck


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Product list for Gwydir River at Yarrowyck


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Probability distribution for Gwydir River at Yarrowyck(  )

Basic Statistics
Streamflow Forecast
(3 month total flow in GL)
Historical Reference
(3 month total flow in GL)
25% Quartile1.7552.726
Median4.49110.350
Mean8.04115.459
75% Quartile10.45924.244
Interquartile Range8.70421.518

Exceedance Probability
Exceedance Prob. of
Streamflow (%)
Streamflow Forecast
(3 month total flow in GL)
Historical Reference
(3 month total flow in GL)
146.80764.006
238.30655.752
333.97052.509
430.74349.837
527.71647.853
625.30345.084
724.02743.128
822.69741.290
921.48139.445
1020.47338.048
1119.50536.882
1218.40635.585
1317.35034.594
1416.45733.594
1515.71932.486
1614.96031.599
1714.38930.556
1813.64729.483
1913.10928.531
2012.71027.774
2112.17027.039
2211.75826.214
2311.31425.633
2410.81824.782
2510.46824.244
2610.08523.779
279.79223.068
289.37222.500
299.06821.836
308.79521.101
318.51220.424
328.17019.734
337.83219.187
347.59518.645
357.36617.900
367.10317.302
376.82016.704
386.56916.145
396.35415.686
406.15915.083
415.95314.500
425.77714.069
435.64513.707
445.46513.210
455.28212.766
465.10812.271
474.95311.824
484.79211.247
494.63610.814
504.49110.350
514.3239.935
524.1839.524
534.0449.051
543.9118.606
553.7748.164
563.6657.641
573.5377.339
583.3977.040
593.2756.719
603.1666.308
613.0505.912
622.9325.632
632.8155.377
642.7315.073
652.6324.844
662.5344.616
672.4524.410
682.3504.149
692.2503.891
702.1703.712
712.0953.476
722.0233.295
731.9373.089
741.8472.913
751.7542.726
761.6822.565
771.5692.398
781.5052.250
791.4212.114
801.3451.944
811.2651.793
821.1711.657
831.0891.510
841.0321.395
850.9691.300
860.8971.178
870.8431.061
880.7670.973
890.6970.873
900.6400.770
910.5840.681
920.5180.585
930.4540.493
940.3770.393
950.3000.330
960.2420.266
970.1540.186
980.0780.131
990.0000.080


About the probability distribution product


  1. The forecast is a simulation from the Bayesian Joint Probability (BJP) Model. The simulation comprises 5000 members.
  2. The forecast skill of the BJP model is different for different forecast periods of the year. Please look at the Model Validation results to assess model skill for this forecast period.
  3. The historical reference is a probabilistic representation of the historical data.
  4. The forecast location name is displayed in the graph title. Site forecast locations are followed by the Australian Water Resources Council (AWRC) river station number in brackets e.g. (405219).
  5. The streamflow data used for new forecasts and for verification is from realtime data sources which are not rigorously quality controlled.
  6. The historical reference plot and the historical data plots are derived from the available historical record. The legend shows the year associated with the start month of the forecast period.
  7. The RMSEP skill scores have been defined as less than 10 very low skill, 10-20 low skill, 20-40 moderate skill, greater than 40 high skill.
  8. The 25% quartile, also defined as the first quartile cuts off the lowest 25% of data. The 75% quartile, also defined as the third quartile cuts off the lowest 75%. The interquartile range, also called the middle fifty, is a measure of statistical dispersion, being equal to the difference between the third and first quartiles.
  9. Further explanation of some technical terms is provided under the FAQ.


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