Seasonal Streamflow Forecasts

Probability distribution for Gwydir River at Yarrowyck


Return to catchment list
Product list for Gwydir River at Yarrowyck



Download forecast data
Probability distribution for Gwydir River at Yarrowyck ( Feb 2014 )

Basic Statistics
Historical Reference
(3 month total flow in GL)
25% Quartile0.446
Median2.041
Mean8.165
75% Quartile8.977
Interquartile Range8.531

Exceedance Probability
Exceedance Prob. of
Streamflow (%)
Historical Reference
(3 month total flow in GL)
167.038
253.772
348.516
444.246
540.971
636.627
733.555
830.667
927.830
1025.726
1124.005
1222.143
1320.743
1419.353
1517.877
1616.750
1715.445
1814.170
1913.106
2012.302
2111.549
2210.714
2310.199
249.432
258.982
268.604
278.032
287.601
297.144
306.644
316.220
325.795
335.484
345.203
354.811
364.527
374.248
384.007
393.811
403.569
413.346
423.190
433.060
442.892
452.748
462.589
472.457
482.288
492.165
502.041
511.932
521.830
531.711
541.609
551.501
561.389
571.324
581.259
591.193
601.107
611.029
620.975
630.925
640.869
650.826
660.783
670.745
680.698
690.651
700.619
710.577
720.545
730.509
740.479
750.446
760.419
770.390
780.365
790.342
800.314
810.288
820.265
830.241
840.222
850.206
860.186
870.167
880.153
890.136
900.120
910.105
920.090
930.075
940.059
950.049
960.038
970.026
980.017
990.009


About the probability distribution product


  1. The forecast is a simulation from the Bayesian Joint Probability (BJP) Model. The simulation comprises 5000 members.
  2. The forecast skill of the BJP model is different for different forecast periods of the year. Please look at the Model Validation results to assess model skill for this forecast period.
  3. The historical reference is a probabilistic representation of the historical data.
  4. The forecast location name is displayed in the graph title. Site forecast locations are followed by the Australian Water Resources Council (AWRC) river station number in brackets e.g. (405219).
  5. The streamflow data used for new forecasts and for verification is from realtime data sources which are not rigorously quality controlled.
  6. The historical reference plot and the historical data plots are derived from the available historical record. The legend shows the year associated with the start month of the forecast period.
  7. The RMSEP skill scores have been defined as less than 10 very low skill, 10-20 low skill, 20-40 moderate skill, greater than 40 high skill.
  8. The 25% quartile, also defined as the first quartile cuts off the lowest 25% of data. The 75% quartile, also defined as the third quartile cuts off the lowest 75%. The interquartile range, also called the middle fifty, is a measure of statistical dispersion, being equal to the difference between the third and first quartiles.
  9. Further explanation of some technical terms is provided under the FAQ.


Creative Commons By Attribution logo
Unless otherwise noted, all material on this page is licensed under the Creative Commons Attribution Australia Licence